By Alan Caruba
The President of the United States is routinely referred to as the most powerful man on the Earth. There is a greater power and it is the changing characteristics of population, something that occurs constantly here and around the world.
Laws are powerless against it and, in particular, laws that were passed some eighty to fifty years ago with the best of intentions. I refer, in particular, to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. No one anticipated that Americans would routinely live to their current life expectancy of 78 years, nor that advances in medicine and healthcare would extend their lives into their late 80’s and their 90’s.
Nor could laws anticipate American lifestyles that went from a time when older citizens often lived with and were cared for by their children to a time when retirement communities exist along with facilities that provide care for the elderly afflicted with the illness associated with aging such as the explosion of Alzheimer’s disease. In the 1930s, no one anticipated the emancipation of women and their empowerment in the workplace.
Jonathan Last is a senior writer at the Weekly Standard and the author of a new book, “What to Expect When No One’s Expecting: American’s Coming Demographic Disaster.” The Wall Street Journal recently published an article by Last, “America’s Baby Bust.”
Demographics, birth rates, aging, and the movement of populations such as the many Hispanics that crossed our southern border to seek jobs and enjoy the benefits America extends through programs that aid the poor. For the second time since 1986, Congress is attempting to grapple with millions of illegal aliens and their children who call America home.
While the immigration debate rages, Last notes that it has been the immigration of Hispanics that has kept the U.S. from becoming as stagnant as Japan. “While the nation as a whole has a fertility rate of 1.93, the Hispanic-American fertility rate is 2.35.” Even that is beginning to decline.
“Forget the debt ceiling, Forget the fiscal cliff, the sequestration cliff and the entitlement cliff. These are just symptoms. What America really faces is a demographic cliff: The root cause of most of our problems is our declining fertility rate.”
“The fertility rate is the number of children an average woman bears over the course of her life. The replacement rate is 2.1. If the average woman has more children than that, the population grows. Fewer, and it contracts. Today, America’s total fertility rate is 1.93, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; it hasn’t been above the replacement rate in a sustained way since the early 1970s.”
The only blip in our fertility rate followed the end of WWII and that cohort became known as the “baby boomers.” They are now retiring in large numbers daily. That is putting a strain on the Social Security and Medicare programs.
In the “good old days” women were, for the most part, homemakers caring for their families, but not part of the job market. Another factor after WWII was the belief that everyone had to have a college degree to have upward mobility. “Women,” notes Last, “began attending college in equal (and then ever greater) numbers than men.”
This caused young people of both sexes to put off marriage and, as the economy encountered recessions and the present fiscal uncertainties, the cost of college has skyrocketed, and graduation now means a huge debt for many of them before they even enter the job market.
The decrease in the fertility rate is not just an American problem. It is global and we are seeing this in Europe where socialism has been practiced even more briskly than here. As Last points out, “97% of the world’s population now lives in countries where the fertility rate is falling.” It translates into lost productivity and pressures on governments that attempt to prop up and maintain their economies through excessive borrowing. The U.S. government borrows about 40 cents of every dollar it spends.
So the President and Congress face the problem of an aging population, too few new babies being born, and economic policies—increased taxation—that work against the decision to have children. Children are expensive. The “perverse effect of putting government in the business of eldercare has been to reduce the incentives to have children…”
To that we can add putting government in charge of healthcare, education, housing, and energy. It has a track record of ruining these sectors that would thrive if they were returned to the free and open marketplace. One can search the Constitution long and hard to find a justification for government intervention or control and plenty of history to demonstrate they do better when addressed at the state and local level.
“In the face of this decline,” says Last, “the only thing that will preserve America’s place in the world is if all Americans—Democrats, Republicans, Hispanics, blacks, Jews, Christians and atheists—decide to have babies.”
© Alan Caruba, 2013
Comment
Comment by Teri Amborn on February 18, 2013 at 4:36pm I've been saying this for a long time. We baby-boomers didn't bother to have babies and this country is doomed to extinction because of it.
Comment by Rita Miller on February 17, 2013 at 7:10pm Andy, your racism clouds your judgment, as all irrational thinking does. It's not a black vs. white problem, nor is it a brown vs. white problem. It's not even a right vs. left problem. It's a right vs. wrong problem. It's right to have 2 parent families, with a mother and a father who are married and totally faithful to each other and to their children. It is right for families to have the support of society, to be encouraged to have the mother stay home and provide a solid base for her children's well-being. It is right for people, of all colors, ethnicities, religion heritages and languages to apply for entrance into our wonderful country, where they can learn how to be Americans, learn our language and culture, and apply for citizenship. Our country was built on the backs of immigrants who did just that, and their hard work and sacrifice have given you the life and freedoms you so thoughtlessly squander.
It is wrong to have children being murdered as sacrifices to greed and self-absorption. It is wrong to have almost half of the babies born in this country come into single-parent households, more likely to live in poverty and grow up to be unsuccessful adults who are drags on society rather than contributors. It is wrong for people to sneak across our borders, ignore our laws and refuse to go through the legal process to be in this blessed land. It is wrong for those who are born here to lump everyone of a slightly darker skin color, different culture or ethnicity, as enemies to be scorned, denigrated, discounted and hated. There are some people who fit the description of "problematic", and from what you have written, you seem to fit the bill.
Comment by Doug Nicholson on February 17, 2013 at 3:56pm There is one factor left out of this article.
North America is the only place where Muslim population growth is accelerating, and that’s due to immigration. The Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population over the next two decades – an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent for Muslims, compared with 0.7 percent for non-Muslims,” the report said. The growth rate for Muslims was 2.2 percent between 1990 and 2010.
If the rate of population growth among Muslims continues, or even accelerates, I foresee a time when the U.S. no longer worships God or Marx, but Allah.
Comment by Billy Bowlegs on February 17, 2013 at 2:28pm As the head of the executive branch of the federal government, a president can issue executive orders only to employees of the federal governmentand only regarding implementing federal laws or programs. A governor can likewise issue executive orders to employees of his state government regarding the laws or programs of that state.
Every sheriff is a county officer, elected by the voters of that county. The Supreme Court held in Printz v. U.S. in 1997 that the Tenth Amendment forbids the federal government from ever ordering any state or local official to carry out a federal program. Ironically, that case also involved a sheriffJay Printz of Montanaand a federal gun control law
Comment by Ronald Sorrells on February 17, 2013 at 12:33pm We have the 2nd Amendment to guard against anarchy & tyranny !
Ron
Comment by Motivated Opposition on February 17, 2013 at 12:29pm Andy - I wholeheartedly agree and have been saying the same thing since I was a young man and far more "liberal" than I am today.
As I told someone earlier, "white" connotes a whole lot more than skin color, just as "black" does.
The Thought Police don't even want you to think such things, much less speak of it.
I feel that we have a biological imperative to replenish our species via procreation of the regular variety. I believe in it even though I am not religious at all and don't feel I have a mandate from any deity, but simply believe that you ought to have some kids if you can.
I'll close by taking another swipe at a protected group: I recently heard a gay man say that he was so happy to discover that gays too now have a biological imperative - they are a big part of population control and doing their part to protect others from global warming.
I kid you not!
Heck we so-called racists ain't half as crazy as some others, if you ask me.
Comment by james stamulis on February 17, 2013 at 11:17am THEY SAY THE SPERM COUNT IN MALES HAS BEEN DROPPING LIKE FLIES THANKS TO ALL THE TOXINS WE LIVE WITH AND GMO'S ETC. FOOD FOR THOUGHT.
Comment by Jeffrey Payne on February 17, 2013 at 10:53am Debrajoe Smith-Beatty, I believe you've got it backwards. We don't make the world safe so that we have have babies; we have babies & they are our reason for striving make the world safe.
If no more babies were being born, society would devolve into chaos. Because, what's the point in behaving ourselves if society will disappear in one lifetime?
Ever since Cain & Abel, it's not been safe to bring babies into the world. We do it, because we love more than we fear. That's why parenthood is the bravest thing most of us ever do.
Comment by Billy Bowlegs on February 17, 2013 at 10:45am Obozo has a one line play book.
Destroy America!
He was created from the imagination of an ex President and slipped through the maize of hidden records just to be in Place to Destory this Country.
In no uncertain terms, he is using the HITLER HANDBOOK.
His bottom line is:
Comment by Debrajoe Smith-Beatty on February 17, 2013 at 10:14am Obama is not the most powerful man on earth, he can't handle power. He can't handle leadership and I firmly believe that his handlers will discard him like trash before long. Biden, well, he is not a bright light bulb.
© 2013 Created by Judson Phillips.
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