By Alan Caruba
Let the chatteratti and political pundits say what they will, dancing around the issue of gay marriage on Obama’s chances of reelection, but I will tell you plainly that he has swallowed a poison pill.
Gay marriage is a deal-breaker for a vast swath of American voters that includes Catholics as well as the black and Hispanic communities. Urbanites and suburbanites may say that they are okay with gay marriage, but what they tell pollsters and what they say privately among friends and family is far different. Americans may want to be tolerant, but their distaste for the gay lifestyle and incessant demands for acceptance is deeply offensive to most people.
Thanks to what will be seen as a historic gaffe by Vice President Joe Biden, the President was put in a vice as he was seen to vacillate—evolve—his position regarding gay marriage, but elections often turn on such issues. Yes, the economy will be the dominant issue of the 2012 election, but the President found himself in a position where he could not avoid taking a position. It was diametrically different from the one he expressed in the 2008 campaign.
If, as anticipated, pro-gay-marriage activists get a plank in the Democratic Party platform affirming their stance, that will further lock the party into an uncompromising position on the issue. Ironically, they will hold their convention in North Carolina, a state that just made headlines by resoundingly rejecting gay marriage.
Legalized same-sex marriage exists in just eight states and the District of Columbia. In purely political terms, the swing states Obama needs for reelection—Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida—have all banned gay marriage. Now add North Carolina.
For the record, I have little faith in the polls that seem to suggest that gay marriage is gaining wider acceptance. People who do not feel comfortable being labeled “homophobes” and bigots tend to tell pollsters they are okay with gay marriage even if they are not.
The much-quoted Gallop poll on gay rights noted that the Catholic Church opposes same-sex marriage and “less than half of Protestants approve.” According to the poll, among those who attend religious services weekly fully 67 percent oppose it while among those who say they attend monthly 53 percent oppose it.
Politically, while a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that gay marriage is supported by two-thirds of Democrats, it also showed that only 46 percent of independents favored it. Asking Democrats to endorse gay marriage is, in a sense, a no-brainer, but in an election year, the issue will drive independents to the right, a losing proposition for Democrats and Obama.
Incensed by Obamacare, the issue that ignited the creation of the Tea Party movement, by the failed stimulus, by scandals involving “green energy” companies that cost Americans millions, by Fast and Furious, an Obama administration sponsored gun-running operation, and the sluggish “recovery”, Obama already faces an uphill battle for reelection.
While trying to hang the “flip-lopper” anvil around Mitt Romney’s neck, Obama has demonstrated a major flip-flop from his earlier position that marriage is “between and a man and a woman.”
Romney has never wavered on gay marriage, opposing it. You can begin to put the undecided votes in his column.
Even in California where Proposition 8 passed 52 percent to 48 percent, a gay rights measure was struck down by the courts and currently is making its way through the appeals process. In 2006 Arizona similarly passed a gay marriage measure by a slim 51 percent but voted two years later to ban it.
Obama is now trapped between liberals who favor gay marriage and a significant margin of socially conservative voters who oppose it. They are likely to decide the 2012 election.
The non-partisan Battleground poll, over a span of the last ten years, has found that 60 percent of Americans call themselves “very conservative” or “somewhat conservative.” That’s compared with 36 percent who call themselves “very liberal” or “somewhat liberal.”
Obama has always been pro-gay rights. His administration has members who are either gay or favor gay rights initiatives. After Obama’s pro-gay marriage statement, his Secretary of Education, Arne Duncan, lent his support, but before being exposed and forced out from his position as DOE’s Director of the Safe and Drug Free Schools program, Kevin Jennings was the founder of the radical Gay, Lesbian, Straight Education Network.
Former President Clinton ran into a firestorm of resistance when he said he thought gays should be allowed to serve in the military. Obama got rid of the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” compromise.
Political pundits are a cautious lot. They know a lot can happen between now and Election Day. While the economy will unquestionably be the over-riding issue in November, the issue of gay marriage is not going to go away. Gay marriage will be the final nail in Obama’s political coffin.
© Alan Caruba
Comment
Comment by Joseph Carter on May 9, 2012 at 11:27pm Comment by Donald D Beddingfield on May 9, 2012 at 11:20pm Thank you Alan for this post. I stand with God's word..Romans 1:28, Leviticus 18:22; 20:13 tells us that a man with man, a woman with woman is an abomination to HIM. This nation is sinning and turning away from GOD. Heaven forgive us. Churches that agree with homosexuality are not teaching and believing the Christian Bible Principles.
Jesus..Come Quickly!!!
Comment by Sumsanity on May 9, 2012 at 10:55pm Where to begin? Flip flopping, not many politicians don't, pandering to special interests, it's not a democrat only behavior. What Obama is doing is bending over (pun intended) to gather that hollywood campaign contribution cashola. I don't hate homosexuals. I do find their behavior repulsive as do most heterosexuals if they were brave and honest about it.
Let's get something straight (no pun intended). Marriage is an institution for which there are certain retrictions. It is NOT A RIGHT. I wasn't born with the right to marry any thing or any body I choose. If I meet certain fair and reasonable qualifications I can take partake in matrimony. Homosexuals wish to erase all sexual orientation restrictions for marriage so they can participate.
Hopefully this will not come to pass, ever.
Comment by Snappyj123 on May 9, 2012 at 10:33pm I'm sure this is one of the demands made by Obonzo's Hollywood and music industry supporters who party at the White House on a regular basis. I am really not surprised by this declaration at all. Every time Obama opens his mouth it is bringing division among families, religions, races, etc. etc. He wants to end the conventional American family unit, so the liberals can raise our kids and indoctrinate them into their "village". Alan, I pray that you are right!!! I wonder if he will ease back after the polls show this new divisive attack.
Comment by Chas Jones on May 9, 2012 at 10:28pm Let us again be crystal clear on this issue/topic. Our founders declared TWO types of "rights." Inalienable Rights endowed upon every human being by our Creator which neither humans nor governments may infringe upon ... AND civil rights granted by government which may also be revoked by government.
God, our Creator, provided His Divine model and example for BOTH marriage and a family ... Adam and Eve [not agnes and eve nor adam and steve nor adam, eve, and barney frank]. Nature also overwhelmingly reflects God's initial model of Perfection.
In addition to God providing us His Perfect examples and models, God also directly and broadly addresses "sins of the flesh," immorality, and all sexual sin and Honors and Blesses only marital intimacy, marital fidelity, and celibacy.
Furthermore, let us be equally clear what the anti-God, sexually perverse, folks have done and advocate. They first sought to claim that sexual sin and immorality were forms of mental illness. Then they sought to redefine deviancy from "deviant and queer" behavior to "gay" and alternative choices and lifestyles. Finally they are seeking to define all deviant sex as both civil and human rights.
Yet even today, God's WORD has NEVER changed and even the secular humanists MUST concede that ALL scientific tests and studies show that NO alternative to God's Divine example, comes close let alone equals, God's example for healthy, well adjusted and happy children and adults.
While I agree that there appears to be NO upside, politically, for Obama to embrace what 31 States have prohibited ... I must ask myself and others ... is Obama really this delusional, or is it possible there is some "madness to his methods" as yet unseen by the rest of us?
Clearly, regardless of any and EVERY poll, each and every time voters have had their say on this question they have rejected inviting God's wrath.
Now I am not so naive as to not recognize that conservatives are steadily losing ground in the "culture battles," especially concerning increasing sexual immorality at ever younger ages of our children. However, it is as close to a modern day Miracle as we may ever see that Every State to place this question before voters has sided with God.
Every candidate for office, from Romney all the way down to city council candidates, should pose this question anytime this topic is raised; "where do you stop ... 2 adults regardless of gender? do we reinstate polygamy? do we discriminate only against pedophiles, the NAMBLA crowd, and necrophiliacs? how about bestiality? once you start down that road ... Where does it END???"
God has clearly declared His view. Even secular humanists and common sense can't refute God's Perfect model and example. And the march of history and ALL recognized world religions also reflect God's Wisdom and mans common sense.
I hope and pray Obama is as dumb as he appears. However, Romney and all conservatives and republicans must add this winning issue to Obama's horrific record ... RATHER THAN be distracted from the latter by the former.
And IF Romney does become the GOP nominee, and does win, he needs to defend DOMA [federally], and restore the ban on homosexuals and lesbians in the military ... while the rest of the States eventually make rejection of the "deviants agenda" UNANIMOUS!
Comment by Walter Bowen on May 9, 2012 at 10:17pm Sociology(not to be confused with Socialism) is the study of groups of people as psychology is the study of the individual mind. Note: Socialism can be a group within society just as a Federal Republicanism(if you are a U. S. Patriot this is you) can also be a part of the same society. Homosexexuality as proven is an "amoral multiplier." you will note in the past prez bam has given up on certain issues but has stood steadfast on his support of homosexuality. Since he stood fast on this issue he never really gave up anything because homosexuality destroy's 1) Marriage, 2) Family, 3) Religion, and 4) Society. As you will note most socialist/communist regimes do not tolerate homosexuality; however they incourage it in societies they want to destroy and take over--then they "deal" with those "useful idiots" after they have served their purpose. I hope you know what "deal with" entails.
Comment by Thomas Clancy on May 9, 2012 at 9:55pm Excellent and timely, Alan, thank you. One wonders what repercussions will come Biden's way, once the polls start reflecting the true reaction to this announcement.
Comment by Andrew Cochran on May 9, 2012 at 9:43pm Comment by Leon Schrei on May 9, 2012 at 9:40pm Comment by k.t.borland on May 9, 2012 at 9:39pm Alan,I pray!
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