Winning

Famed Green Bay Packers coach Vince Lombardi was known for invoking the famous quote, “winning isn’t everything.  It is the only thing.”

For 2012, winning is the only thing.  We must win the Presidency.  It is not simply a matter of kicking Barack Obama out of office; we must replace him with a good leader.

What are our chances of winning? 

As a country, we are obsessed with polling and statistics.  Gamblers make a good living off of betting on statistics and at least two off shore gambling sites still give odds that Barack Obama will be reelected.

How real is that?

First, Obama’s approval ratings are tanking.  Gallup now has Obama’s approval rating at a catastrophic 39%.    An average of polls puts his approval rating around 41%.  Still, whether it is 39% or 41% for an incumbent that is a disaster. 

Despite efforts by some to destroy the system our founding fathers put in place, the Electoral College, that is still how elections are decided.  Politics is always a numbers game. 

So what are the numbers?

Right now, in a head to head fight, Obama comes up with 207 electoral votes to 191 for a generic Republican challenger.   There are 140 votes that are considered toss-ups.  When you start looking at those toss-ups, it makes the map look very interesting.

Florida is the largest of the swing states with 29 votes.   While every current poll has Obama in the lead, only against Michele Bachman does he poll 50%, but only 50%.  In one poll, 15% are undecided.  Undecided voters are huge because when an incumbent is running, 80% of undecided voters will ultimately vote against the incumbent.  It is hard to see Florida going Blue again.  Obama has infuriated the Jewish vote with his Middle East policies.  He has killed the space program and many retirees, despite the coming Democratic push granny off the cliff commercials, have seen their retirements just hammered by the Obama depression.  If Florida goes red, the GOP is up to 220. 

Pennsylvania is the next largest swing state.  Conventional wisdom is Pennsylvania will go Democrat.  Polling seems to challenge this idea.  Right now, in the latest polls, Romney beats Obama by 2 points.  While Bachmann and Perry both trail by 6 to 8 points, those polls also show undecided voters at 14 to 16%.  If 80% of those go against Obama, Pennsylvania goes red.  If so, that takes the GOP up to 240 electoral votes. 

Ohio is the next largest swing state with 18 electoral votes.  Ohio went Blue in 2008 but was the deciding state for George W. Bush in 2004.  It just elected a Republican governor and the Republicans control both Houses of the Legislature.  There are no current polls available but it is hard to see Ohio going Blue this time.  That takes the GOP up to 258.

If those predictions are accurate, that would leave a generic Republican candidate 12 votes short of the 270 they need to win.   That leaves Michigan (16 votes), North Carolina (15 votes), Virginia (13 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes), Colorado (9 votes), Iowa (6 votes) and New Hampshire (4 votes) left.   It is hard to see a Republican not getting 12 votes from the remaining 73 electoral votes.

Polling is an interesting science but in looking at the numbers, some things have to be remembered.  Romney fares the best is most of these polls against Obama.  He has been running non-stop since 2008 and he had the 2008 race to not only get his name out there but build a campaign infrastructure.    Bachmann has done a remarkable job creating a campaign organization, as she just demonstrated in Iowa.   Perry has just joined the campaign and is doing remarkably well.  Much of what was once Newt Gingrich’s campaign staff is now his. 

The meme the RINOs are trying to sell to everyone else is that Romney is the only candidate who can beat Obama.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  When an incumbent runs for reelection, the ballot is a referendum on the incumbent. 

This election is going to be about Obama and it is the Republican’s race to lose.  This is 1980 all over again.  Only this time, conservatives are ready.  We do not have to pick Romney as our nominee under the theory he is the only one who can beat Obama, because he is not the only one who can beat Obama.  For conservatives, this could be the beginning of a golden age of conservatism.  We must elect a conservative President and we must put conservatives in the House and Senate.   An opportunity like this only appears once a generation. 

Obama has been a disaster for America.  However, a disaster always presents opportunity.  We must reach out and take that opportunity. We must ensure that our next President is not simply a RINO, who wants to manage big government.  We must ensure the next President is a visionary who understands either we dismantle socialism now or forever lose our freedom.  

Can we do this?  Yes we can!