There is one major question left for the Republican 2012 Presidential field. Will Sarah Palin get in the race or not?
Palin has made it clear she is going to do whatever she is going to do on her timetable and not anyone else’s. Last week, when a blogger said she was going to make a decision next week, Palin tweeted, “Really? Hmm guess they forgot to inform me what I’m “expected to do” next wk.”
What is Palin going to do? Will she or won’t she run?
She remains an enigma wrapped inside a riddle. The evidence seems to suggest she will not.
Consider the following bits of evidence to suggest she is not going to run. First, the “One Nation” bus tour is on hiatus and there seems to be no indication when or even if it will resume. According to published reports, Palin and family are back in Alaska.
According to media reports, Palin has not made any outreach to Iowa Governor Terry Branstadt nor to South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Both Iowa and South Carolina are crucial states and every day she waits, if she is going to jump in, is another day of lost momentum. Other candidates are gaining traction, supporters and campaign contributions.
One of the most significant clues about Palin is the lack of any campaign organization in any of the early campaign states. She doesn’t have them in the last states either but the late states don’t matter if you don’t start in the early states.
Many of her supporters refer to Reagan’s late entrance for the 1980 campaign. That is misleading. Reagan may not have announced until late fall of 1979; however, he had been laying groundwork for a campaign, especially in the early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, since the previous presidential election 3 years earlier.
Palin has a very motivated base. Some people refer to it as a fan base. I don’t like that term. I think it is demeaning. Whether you agree or disagree with them, they are very motivated, very sincere and are willing to do whatever it takes to help their candidate get elected.
If she announces, she will have a lot of volunteers. There are a lot of people who will drop what they are doing to help her. That is not the issue. The issue for her, which is one of the main reasons many political pros do not believe she is running, is she has no organization.
Many who support Palin say she does not need an organization. They are wrong.
There is a reason why politicians do the same thing, the same way, every time. There is a reason why all cars pretty much have the same design. They have an engine, four wheels, two or four doors and window.
Political campaigns are the same. They are done the same way because they work. Many of Palin’s supporters say she will use the Internet and social media to campaign. The Internet and social media are nice but they do not replace the campaign organization. Social media is the equivalent of a new engine. It may drive the car a little faster and get more miles to the gallon but the basic design of the car does not change.
Social media cannot replace one on one meetings with state organizers, grassroots activists, Republican officials and most importantly, the voters.
The final indication that most people have that Palin is not running is that her “One Nation” tour took contributions for her PAC instead of a Presidential Exploratory Committee. There is nothing wrong with using a PAC or raising money for a PAC. However, under Federal Law, she cannot transfer the money from Sarah PAC to a Presidential Exploratory Committee or to a campaign.
With all of the evidence against a run, it is hard to believe there will be a change in direction. Palin certainly has a plan. She moves methodically and skillfully in the world of politics. What is her end game? Only those few in her inside circle know with certainty, but the evidence points against her running for President in 2012.
Tags: 2012, gop, palin, party, presidential, primary, republican, sarah, tea
Permalink Reply by William Rance Ranney on 
Permalink Reply by Ann G on I really don't see it as personal ambitions. I really believe that she sees it as a calling, and the timing is not hers to control. I believe her faith will carry her wherever she needs to go.
Permalink Reply by Ken McEntee on Who cares?
Here's an idea: How about if people start covering her campaign if and when she announces it.
I'm tired of the sideshow - and that's not on her - it's on the people who are obsessed with the sideshow and won't stop reporting and commenting on it.
Permalink Reply by Dave Mason on Permalink Reply by Jim Hoff on Do you know for a fact that she doesn't have an organization? Is it possible there is an organization waiting for the "word" and until they have it they just quietly do things in the background?
I don't know of she does or doesn't, but I do know she is the most slimmed politician in American history and she was completely written off last January. She has come back stronger than she ever was by doing things her unorthodox way.
I wouldn't count her out yet. I do believe she will have more impact on the 2012 election than any other person in America whether she is a candidate or not. I continue to say, let her do her own thing... she know what she is doing.
Permalink Reply by Stephen Alexander on 
Permalink Reply by Barry W Gaugler on Stephen,
I hate to be the one to break it to you, but you just don't get it. She left the governors seat to save the taxpayers and her family the cost of unfounded and frivilous lawsuits, which were distracting her from her duties. She did the smart thing by resigning and only the ignorant who, haven't truely looked into the matter spout off this junk. I know you are smarter than you are coming accross. Please, do your homework on the matter and don't just repeat what the libs repeat out of their ignorance. She has character, unlike those in the LSM.
Permalink Reply by william kent jenkins on Permalink Reply by Dave Mason on 
Permalink Reply by katy on 
Permalink Reply by Steven Robinson on Well said Katy, Only they were despicably dishonest and frivolous ethics complaints BASED on the law that she shepherded through the 'Legislative body, formerly known as the "Corrupt Bastards Club"!
And Satan hates her for the position to which GOD has called her. And he hates her for standing like Esther.
Permalink Reply by Barry W Gaugler on Judson,
I believe you are wrong on almost every count. I have a doctors appointment in less than an hour, so I will try to be brief. Why was she sitting down with Netanyahu? You can bet, she was promising support for Israel and in return will muster the Jewish support in this country. What was her meeting about with Donald Trump? It's nice to have powerful friends on your side. She is a very intelligent woman. Do you know of anyone in America that does not know who Sarah Palin is? She has name recognition above every other candidate whose hat is either already in the ring, or is planning to throw it into the ring. How many candidates have won in the early states only to not come anywhere near getting the nomination? She doesn't need to be out there right now wearing herself out campaigning. She needs some time at home with her family to just relax for a while. You can bet that she is running. She is smart. Let the others make all their mistakes early. The more you are out there in front of the public and the media, the more chances you have to blow it. She is letting the grass roots organizations do all the leg work for her at this time. Groups like Pennsylvanians4Palin.com and groups just like that all over this great nation. This nations has millions of workers just waiting patiently for her to make the announcement, but when she does you will hear a rumble like this nation has never heard before in all of History.
Plus Judson, you are missing one very important aspect of Sarah Palin. Her faith. She knows it is G-d's calling for her life. She is a modern day Esther. She was put on this earth for a time such as this. It is my belief that she will be obedient to G-d's call.
© 2013 Created by Judson Phillips.
