Three weeks from tonight, the citizens of Iowa are going to brave the cold weather and vote in the Iowa caucuses. The talking, debating and guessing will be over. The real election will be underway.
Looking at Iowa three weeks away, there is a real possibility of a surprise winner in Iowa.
Who could that be?
Unfortunately, it could be Ron Paul.
It is unfortunate for several reasons. First, I personally want Newt Gingrich to win. If Gingrich wins Iowa, either wins or comes very close to Romney in New Hampshire, then wins South Carolina and Florida (he is leading significantly in both states), then the Republican primary is basically over. If Newt can do this and basically lock things up before Super Tuesday, then he as the presumptive nominee can start on attacking Obama and raising money for the general election.
Barack Obama has said he would raise one billion dollars for the general election. That does not count the money that will be raised from other sources nor does it count the illegal contributions that always go to the Party of Treason. The sooner the GOP primary is over, the sooner the nominee can start raising money for the general election..
The worst-case scenario for the GOP is a primary season that stretches into the summer, where the candidates are forced to spend even more money on the primary and not against Obama.
An Iowa upset by Ron Paul is a real possibility for a couple of reasons. First, because Newt was behind for so long, he was the last candidate to formally open an office in Iowa and the ground team Newt needs in Iowa is being built in a hurry.
The caucus system in Iowa requires a strong campaign infrastructure because the caucuses are all about getting people out on January 3.
This is Ron Paul’s strong point. I have repeatedly said, stuffing ballots is what Ron Paul’s campaign does best. He wins straw polls at places like CPAC because he gets his people (usually college students) to the events in large numbers and they overwhelm the real vote.
If Gingrich wins Iowa, he could be set to run the table. Michele Bachmann has gone all in in Iowa. Polls have her at 9% and a poor performance will end her campaign. The same can probably also be said for Santorum and Perry. If Romney cannot win in New Hampshire, which is a virtual home state for him, then his race comes to an end too. The primary contests prior to Super Tuesday are not winner take all races so all of the candidates will end up with delegates. If Gingrich takes the first four primaries, he wins a different race.
He will win the money race and the contributions for all other candidates will come to an end.
The problem with Ron Paul is a victory by him in Iowa simply extends the primary season and the winner from a longer Republican primary season is Barack Obama.
Tags: 2012, Iowa, caucuses, gingrich, newt, paul, republican, ron
Permalink Reply by gm.shoemaker on "I do not believe, for one minute, that Ron Paul can beat Obama. I do believe that Ron Paul will make a wonderful, Secretary of the Treasury."
Believe it! Ron Paul will be a great president.
Gary
Permalink Reply by Barbara Wilson on I agree, Jim!
Bachmann and Santorum have been 'shrugged off' since the git go. But they more closely reflect Tea Party values than any other Repub candidates.
Permalink Reply by Jim Watson on We can not afford to get it wrong this time. We need to turn the Senate to True Conservatives and keep the House as well as elect a Tea Party Conservative on the Republican ticket. This is really our last chance in this generation.
Permalink Reply by Barbara Wilson on Agreed. A Republican CONSERVATIVE House & Senate might be able to assuage a Newt or Mittens presidency. Better if it was led by Bachmann or Santorum. Federal legislation should be limited to Constitutional issues, and the process of peeling back the legacy of non-constitutional programs must begin. This includes Medicare and Social Security, EPA and other non-elected 'Departments'.
Permalink Reply by Darlene Black on Perry and Romney both have money and staff I don't think a loss in Iowa will put Perry out. I know you would like all of them to drop out but don't count your chickens till your eggs hatch. A lot of people other than Beck don't like Gingrich or Romney.
Permalink Reply by Mabel Pattison on I am sorry that you feel that way, Judson, as Newt is for big government among other things. I do not trust him and besides that, why worry who would be better at a debate with Obama? Obama may opt out of the debates. My 2 favorites were Sarah Palin and Herman Cain. I do not know who I am going to vote for until I enter the precinct to vote. I will not vote for Romney nor Gingrich. Haven't we had enough of the current way things are done? I am in the mood for "Vote the Bums out, no matter what party." I prefer Ron Paul over Newt. It amazes me that anyone in the Tea Party movement would vote for RINO's Newt or Romney.
Permalink Reply by Debrajoe Smith-Beatty on Iwill vote for who ever the GOP candidate is. I want Obama gone!!!!
Permalink Reply by Dale L. Neill on RON PAUL is not a good person to run our country; he is a liberatian and therefore not a "mainline" thinker, he is for abortion, same sex marriage and many other things that goes against the grain of the Christian person.
Permalink Reply by Peter Esposito on Yes, but does GOVERNMENT have the right to enforce social/moral issues on its citizens? Think about it.
Permalink Reply by Darlene Black on Peter, do you Paulbots have the right to force someone on us that only you Paulbots want? HE NEEDS A KEEPER. Truly, don't you people have a site of your own whrere you can smoke your pot and tell each other how wonderful Iran and all the muslims are and how much they love the US?
Permalink Reply by Dave Mason on Needs a keeper...priceless, Darlene. I'm gonna steal those buzz words...
If the real folks on this site believed the Paulbots, they'd be slitting their throats...As it is, they're just laughing at them.
Permalink Reply by Jim Watson on Get this straight, Ron Paul is NOT "FOR" abortion/Same sex marriage etc., He just believes in "complete liberty for each individual so long as you abide by the Constitution/Bill of Rights. America has been going down this progressive road so long it will take many many years to reverse progressivism -- UNLESS we get a Libertarian in and even that with 8 years will not reverse all the crap Progressives have put upon our great nation. So lets get Ron Paul in there!
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