Today is the big day. In a couple of hours, the Supreme Court will announce the long awaited Obamacare decision.
The Court will take the bench at 10 AM Eastern Time and will have a few matters before it gets to Obamacare. Since it seems likely that the decision is being written by Chief Justice John Roberts, it looks like it will be the last decision announced.
What will happen?
No one knows for certain, other than the Justices and a few of their staff, what the decision will be. I’m going to go out on a limb and make a couple of predictions.
The most important part of the law is what we call the Individual Mandate. That is the order that we must all buy Obamacare Insurance. Kiss it good-bye. It is gone.
The five conservative Justices greeted that law with skepticism when it was argued and it seems to have gone down hill from there. Some of the liberals were not too thrilled with the Individual Mandate either. Both Breyer and Sotomayor seemed skeptical as well.
The Individual Mandate will go down. It will be either 6-3 or 7-2 to strike down the individual mandate.
With the Individual Mandate gone, what happens to the rest of the bill? In legal terms that is called severability. Law makers try to put provisions in bills like this that say if one portion of the law is struck down the rest of the law survives.
That is true to a point.
The Justices have to decide among other things, if the portion of the law that was struck down, in this case, the Individual Mandate, is so crucial to the law itself, the rest of the law cannot survive.
Obamacare is going to be totally struck down. The decision will probably be 5-4 though it could be 6-3 with Breyer going with the conservative majority.
Why would it be struck down?
It is the law of the Path of Least Resistance.
If the Supreme Court strikes down the Individual Mandate but leaves the rest of the law intact, they would then have to go through that massive bill, all 2700 pages of it and specify which parts of the bill survive and which parts are struck down as a part of the Individual Mandate. There are also other parts of the law, such as the Medicaid expansion that could also be struck down. The more parts of the law that are struck down, the harder it is to justify the remainder of the bill surviving.
During oral arguments, Justice Breyer hinted at this, indicating he had not read the entire 2700 page bill.
If the entire 2700 page bill is struck down, the Justices do not have to go through the bill, line by line, deciding what remains. Such a decision also wipes out the entire second round of Obamacare litigation that is coming, including the Catholic Church’s lawsuits on religious freedom grounds.
Justices and Judges are like anyone else. Offer them the easy way or offer them the hard way, they will choose the easy way.
Lawyers say, “Bad cases make bad law.” Sometimes bad laws make good cases. This could happen though it is unlikely.
In a perfect world, the Court would use this as an occasion to overrule Wickard v. Filburn, the 1942 case that stretched the Commerce Clause of the Constitution beyond all recognition and gave the Federal Government the power to do many of the things it is now doing.
By overruling Wickard, it would set the stage for a massive roll back of the power of the Federal Government. Regrettably, I don’t think there are five Justices on the Supreme Court who would agree to do that.
The most pleasant surprise from today would be overruling Wickard. However, I expect it to be a good day and I will be on the steps of the Supreme Court at 10 ready to spike the football to celebrate the triumph of freedom and liberty over the tyranny of Obama and his Party of Treason.
Permalink Reply by James Flowers on Dear Mr. Kluska:
We, the US Health Care Panel of the HHS, have determined that your age precludes you from being useful to society, consequently your appendectomy has been denied.
Sincerely,
US Health Care Panel of the HHS
========================
I work with many older, ex-hippie Liberals -- anytime one gets ill -- I plan to write the US Health Care panel to advocate for the denial of their medical requests, as I do not see them to be useful to society in anyway.
Does anyone have the US Health Care Panel's address?
Permalink Reply by John Bellaire on If Obamacrap is upheld, it is a sad day for our country. Maybe it is God's punishment to America for letting the bastard be elected. The nation will suffer and it may lessen the Republican chance to defeat Obama. Would anyone doubt control by communists in our government now?
Permalink Reply by david chaney on The Republicans need to back a Constitutional Amendment forbidding the Government to mandate purchase of any product. Apparently, Judge Roberts, thought that playing politics was more important than upholding the constitution. He needs to be removed from the Supreme Court. If the Republicans can't come up with a Constitutional Amendment and try to remove Roberts from the Bench, assuming it's possible, they're just trying to manipulate the conservative vote to get elected. I was ready to vote for Romney, but his speech on TV failed to recognize the real problem - the Government telling us what we must buy. There's always the libertarian candidate. The Tea Party needs to split off from the Republicans or take over the party by replacing questionable Republicans with Democrats looking to 2014 to get the country on the right track.
Permalink Reply by Edward Dalton Smith on Very well said. If the Republicans don't go after Roberts, that's pretty good evidence their opposition to Osamacare is for show only.
IMPEACH JOHN ROBERTS, TRAITOR TO THE CONSTITUTION.
Permalink Reply by Ieahsan Haidaev on Your decision is for Obama's victory anyway! You play into Obama's hands. Not words but practice is our friend! IN 2008 most cried "I can, We can, They can He can" and now you all are in a****** area called Kenia's tricks! Libertarian is idea nowadays not real and not actual act. And you all should spend another four years after Obama's destructive policy to create grounds for revival the libertarians. Romney Mitt is nice and qualitative tool to reach that aim!
Permalink Reply by Walter T Jennings Sr on My earlier posts/replies were before I learned the Supreme Court is no different than any of the others. They all are politically corrupt, ignore the Constitution and leave us no alternative but to react as they were afraid others have in the past. Now all the inerts, the career welfare inerts who choose not top0 work yet draw a check each month filled with our tax money. Obama says I can keep my health insurance but he is taking steps to gut Medicare and will eventually limit the Veterans Administration more than they have been so they too will be good on paper (Look what we "give" you) but useless. I thought I earned this but there are those who lump me in with the inerts and give me herd. I resent the hell out of that and really question now if my decision to make the military a career was a good one.
The Bas*&^( is on TV right now praising the Supreme Court that he recently talked down about. The 2 faced SOB. Then too, politicians are inherent 2 faced. I'm ready to find another country. This one will go belly up soon
Permalink Reply by Nancy on Please pass this site along to all your family/friends--please consider posting this on every "State" page here on TPN!
Check to see if you/your family members are registered to vote:
Permalink Reply by Edward Dalton Smith on Okay, it's time to think about impeaching John Roberts and the liberal members of the Supreme Court. They're only allowed to serve during "good behavior." Ripping the Constitution to shreds for political profit is the opposite of what the Founding Fathers meant by "good behavior." Roberts is now officially the worst Chief Justice in American history, and a traitor to the conservative right.
IMPEACH ROBERTS. IMPEACH HIM NOW.
Permalink Reply by Ieahsan Haidaev on Hard time, Evil is attacking the America after occupying the Russia and destroying the Europe. You, Americans, are the last stronghold of GOD in this world. Russia, my native country, has been lost and crushed by the power of Darkness when electing, The Israel after moving the 7th REBE MOSHIACH off has lapsed into oblivion of Obama's miserable pittance in exchange for the Promised Land! Whore of Babylon is awaiting for Obama who is its hope against and contrary to New Jerusalem of America. And Supreme Court is similar to a procurator Pontius Pilatus who had washed his hands of Jesus Christ!
That's it, I QUIT. I was hoping for just one win, forget it. I can't believed I served 25 years in the U.S. Army, took my lumps in Vietnam in '71 just to have the U.S.A. turn into the piece of crap it is today. I quit. No more writing, calling, e-mailing my socalled "representatives". Screw it, I'm just buying a house, putting up a fence, turning off the TV and radio, stopping my newspaper delivery and let life pass me by. It's no longer worth the mental and physical aggrevation, 65% of this country doesn't give a crap so they deserve what they get.
I've resigned myself to the fact that we are now going to be stuck with President Obama for another 4 years.
Anyway, I wish the rest of you the best of luck
This is one tired old Army guy signing off. God Bless you all because no one else is.
Permalink Reply by Ieahsan Haidaev on You may be quit but Obama will nervously meddle into your life! He never worked in production or so, never fought for country, never thought about others because his parents never did those! Therefore you should, no, you have to prevent this sticking for another four years!
Permalink Reply by Bruce Donnelly on The good news is that the Commerce Clause was actually constrained a bit, and that as a tax, that means Obamacare can be repealed in the next Congress with only 51 votes in the Senate via reconciliation as a budget measure rather than facing the hurdle of a 60 vote filibuster rule. We obviously can't get rid of it while Harry Reid remains in charge, but if we bear down and focus on winning control of the Senate in November, as well a the White House, we can do what SCOTUS lacked the courage to do. We can get rid of this disastrous policy and then start to dismantle much of what Obama has done to us, and start to actually reduce the size and scope of the federal government rather than just tinker at the margines of the budget. Let this be a pyrrhic victory for the Dems. Now work hard to throw them all out of office in November, and then keep them out of office for decades by reminding everyone of just how much damage they did to us in their short period of unchecked power. Open investigations of all the crap they have been doing behind the scenes..
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