Today is the big day. In a couple of hours, the Supreme Court will announce the long awaited Obamacare decision.
The Court will take the bench at 10 AM Eastern Time and will have a few matters before it gets to Obamacare. Since it seems likely that the decision is being written by Chief Justice John Roberts, it looks like it will be the last decision announced.
What will happen?
No one knows for certain, other than the Justices and a few of their staff, what the decision will be. I’m going to go out on a limb and make a couple of predictions.
The most important part of the law is what we call the Individual Mandate. That is the order that we must all buy Obamacare Insurance. Kiss it good-bye. It is gone.
The five conservative Justices greeted that law with skepticism when it was argued and it seems to have gone down hill from there. Some of the liberals were not too thrilled with the Individual Mandate either. Both Breyer and Sotomayor seemed skeptical as well.
The Individual Mandate will go down. It will be either 6-3 or 7-2 to strike down the individual mandate.
With the Individual Mandate gone, what happens to the rest of the bill? In legal terms that is called severability. Law makers try to put provisions in bills like this that say if one portion of the law is struck down the rest of the law survives.
That is true to a point.
The Justices have to decide among other things, if the portion of the law that was struck down, in this case, the Individual Mandate, is so crucial to the law itself, the rest of the law cannot survive.
Obamacare is going to be totally struck down. The decision will probably be 5-4 though it could be 6-3 with Breyer going with the conservative majority.
Why would it be struck down?
It is the law of the Path of Least Resistance.
If the Supreme Court strikes down the Individual Mandate but leaves the rest of the law intact, they would then have to go through that massive bill, all 2700 pages of it and specify which parts of the bill survive and which parts are struck down as a part of the Individual Mandate. There are also other parts of the law, such as the Medicaid expansion that could also be struck down. The more parts of the law that are struck down, the harder it is to justify the remainder of the bill surviving.
During oral arguments, Justice Breyer hinted at this, indicating he had not read the entire 2700 page bill.
If the entire 2700 page bill is struck down, the Justices do not have to go through the bill, line by line, deciding what remains. Such a decision also wipes out the entire second round of Obamacare litigation that is coming, including the Catholic Church’s lawsuits on religious freedom grounds.
Justices and Judges are like anyone else. Offer them the easy way or offer them the hard way, they will choose the easy way.
Lawyers say, “Bad cases make bad law.” Sometimes bad laws make good cases. This could happen though it is unlikely.
In a perfect world, the Court would use this as an occasion to overrule Wickard v. Filburn, the 1942 case that stretched the Commerce Clause of the Constitution beyond all recognition and gave the Federal Government the power to do many of the things it is now doing.
By overruling Wickard, it would set the stage for a massive roll back of the power of the Federal Government. Regrettably, I don’t think there are five Justices on the Supreme Court who would agree to do that.
The most pleasant surprise from today would be overruling Wickard. However, I expect it to be a good day and I will be on the steps of the Supreme Court at 10 ready to spike the football to celebrate the triumph of freedom and liberty over the tyranny of Obama and his Party of Treason.
Permalink Reply by Ralph Roshto on Pray. Prepare. Vote.
No pardons for the outgoing vermin.
NO PARDONS!
Permalink Reply by Phil McConathy on Definitely a huge day in the history of America. I can't believe 9 people will decide our fate on how much control the federal government will have on our life and when we are scheduled to die according to their guidelines. Very scarey!
Permalink Reply by Steve Johnson on We need a betting pool. I say the Court will strike down the individual mandate, but not the entire bill.
You are mistaken if you believe the Court needs to read the entire bill and then decide which parts of the bill will remain. They are not required to do anything of the sort.
Permalink Reply by Cheryie E. Wilson on I've been praying for months now. Please no mercy for Nobama and his party of treason.Please America wake up and impeach him!
Permalink Reply by TGFD - on TGFD here.
Judson...As I've been told, there is NO severability clause in obamacare. The Congress Deliberately left it out. In "legal terms", that means if any one part (the Individual Mandate) is struck down (severed), then the rest CANNOT stand. It must be struck-down too. No Severability means that the whole bill stands or falls as one.
TGFD predicts 5-4 or possibly 6-3 to strike-down the mandate, and 9-0 to throw-out the rest.
Permalink Reply by Walter T Jennings Sr on I hope and Pray logic, which seems scarce in politics, prevails. Then Obama will throw another temper tantrum further cutting his throat. If he goes, so goes Soros until he can buy his way in again. The gloom that is hanging over this country just might not be so dark.But as politics go, you never know. Pray hard, cross your fingers , toes, legs etc.
The tension in this country is high and will get higher. We the people are so splintered. This worries me. I saw the riots of the 60s and in other countries. Let's hope we can keep a lid on it. We have to reunite to bring the government to bay. We have to reach out to the other groups, calm down and talk. I have 2 very liberal cousins and have found through discussion we share some common ground. WE need to build on this. The alternative is not pretty. Civil war never is.
Permalink Reply by riverdave on I could not agree more my young friend. It seems to me that the politicians for most all of the decades I have lived through have engaged in dividing WE the PEOPLE to maintain their 'seats'.
Black against white, rich against poor, Democrat against Republican ad nausium. And now with the help of Newsweek® young against old. {check new issue, "Get out of the road"} It states in short that the old/baby boomers are taking away too much of the social security money and the young workers can not afford to support the system. Well I'm very sorry but I put [employer/self employed contribution included] an average of 10% of my income for the last 47 years. With interest that would be a pretty nice little sum.
I must fully agree also with Judson that I feel it will fall as a unit.
Well as I type this the feeds are coming out saying this is the fact, but I am getting different inputs, talk about division, 4 different news sources can't even agree. Damn.
In Liberty, David
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Permalink Reply by Grace Kirby on Given the decision on the immigration bill, I am worried, but praying.
Permalink Reply by Walter T Jennings Sr on Grace,
There is a win in the immigration bill. Yes, part of it was struck down but Arizona can still enforce the rest of it to include mobilizing it's National Guard to stand on the border for real. I say for real because this time they probably will have more room to enforce. I jokingly say will have ammo in their weapons this time.
This ruling also allows other states to do and gain what Arizona has. I can see it mushrooming across the country. What Arizona can do now is much more then the federal government does period. Rome wasn't built over night
Permalink Reply by Grace Kirby on Walter, the Obama administration has already set up phone banks so that people can call in and complain about being stopped and to seek help from the federal government. You think pro-illegal immigration groups (like La Raza) are not already getting ready to fight anything that Arizona does to stem the flow of illegals? Or that Arizona will even do anything, given the fact that the federal government will fight them every step of the way? The SCOTUS gave the power to illegals by allowing them to file lawsuits. Unbelievable. No wonder Sotomayor was for it.
Permalink Reply by Walter T Jennings Sr on Grace,
Nothing surprises me about the government. The phony fronts that are put up never end. For instance, "We "give" you Medicare." Yet the remove 50 billion. What good will it be? Ditto the VA care. Looks good on paper but rings so hollow in actuality.
The last few days have been a roller coaster for me. I see where your words ring true and now the not so Supreme Court has dealt more confusion into the political soup sandwich. Yes, I am down and very negative right now but it is not in me to turn my back and walk away defeated. I am getting on in years and the old bod doesn't want to respond to the 19 year old mind but I will fight to the death for justice and for my children and grand children.
Thanks for your insight. It made me see another proven possibility with a treacherous, corrupt government-The enemy within.
Permalink Reply by Grace Kirby on Walter, I too have children and grandchildren. It is for them that I will fight. The traitors have won these battles, but they have not won the war. I believe the decisions by the SCOTUS on immigration and healthcare will wake up the sleeping masses. We have a little over 4 months to fight with all our might. In the words of John Paul ll, " Do not be afraid".
© 2013 Created by Judson Phillips.
