Chris Christie has said no, once again. The great moderate hope is sitting on the sidelines. All of the great moderate hopes are out of the race, save Romney who can only be described as the not so great moderate hope and Jon Huntsman who might be called the hopeless moderate hope.
What does all of this mean for the GOP Presidential nomination?
There are a number of things this means. When Chris Christie said this was not his time, he understood two things. First, it was very late for him to get into the race. It was too late. Second, he realizes this is not the year of the RINO. Christie is a moderate and he knows this is not the year of the moderate. Yes, there are some moderates left in the GOP, but this year, the Tea Party owns the GOP.
The big winner out of this is Romney. The calls for various moderates to enter the race, culminating with the crescendo of calls for Christie, was a realization by the moderate wing of the GOP that Romney is a flawed candidate. He can deliver a decent speech, but he has no sense of humor, is politically tone deaf and has a debate style best described as rigor mortis.
The good news for Romney is his poll numbers consistently float in the twenty to twenty five percent range. The bad news for Romney is that his poll numbers consistently float in the twenty to twenty five percent range. Romney in some ways is like Ron Paul. He has his block but cannot expand out of that block. With Christie not in the race, Romney faces no threat that the moderate block will now split on him.
For conservatives, the picture is murkier. Conservatives have been looking for a candidate they can be really satisfied with and so far most conservatives have not locked firmly onto one candidate.
The first candidate was Bachmann. Once in second place, her numbers have now fallen so low they are approaching Jon Huntsman levels. She probably needs to be thinking about how to hang on to her Congressional seat in Minnesota or what cabinet position she can land.
Rick Perry upended Bachmann yet now finds his popularity crashing faster than Obama’s. He has even managed to lose a ten-point lead over Mitt Romney. He has fallen to second place in overall polls and in many polls has fallen further than that.
Herman Cain is the latest beneficiary of the volatility of the GOP primary voters. The good news for Cain is he now leads in a number of polls. Even in the one’s he does not lead, he is one of the top tier candidates. The bad news is, as Bachmann and Perry have learned, the GOP electorate is candidate hopping. Cain has gotten a free ride so far, while he was a lower tier candidate. No more. As a top tier candidate, Cain is going to get much greater scrutiny. His 9-9-9 plan is being mercilessly dissected. While most Americans support killing Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen, Cain has backed away from previous statements he had made calling for al-Awlaki not to be killed because he is an American citizen. Cain has another problem he is going to have to face as well.
Cain spent a number of years as a director on a company called Aquilla. Aquilla was an energy company that went from energy production to energy trading. Another company did something similar. That company was called Enron. Aquilla’s board of directors allegedly pushed its employees to invest their retirement funds in the company. The company eventually crashed and many employees had their retirements wiped out.
As Herman Cain cements his status as a front-runner, the Aquilla story is going to come back.
The big winner out of all of this may be Newt Gingrich. Since the end of July, Gingrich’s campaign has been making a slow and steady comeback. In most polls he now polls better than both Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul. If Rick Perry’s implosion continues, Gingrich could find himself in third place.
The race remains in flux, but the field is now set. The nightmare scenario has been described as having to choose between Romney and Obama. Our strategy to avoid that is simple.
We need to make sure the GOP nominee is not a moderate. In other words, we need to make certain the nominee is not Romney.
Cain now has some identified baggage, without having ever been elected to public office! Time to study up on Aquila? Not finding that much yet on this subject. We'll see what happens.
Bachmann may well have taken a nosedive by attacking Perry more than Obama! Perhaps brought both of them down a bit.
Newt remains impressive in his knowledge, but has yet to resonate. And his swipes at the MSM are likely to come home to roost. They'll get even with him!
You're right, anybody but Romney! But the liberal press has little choice but to pick Romney for us. He's their best hope to compete a liberal against an ultra-liberal....
Cain was on the board of directors of Aquila from 1992 to 2008. The crisis described in Mother Jones hit Aquila in 2001-2. Apparently, Cain stayed there even while his colon/liver cancer was found to be trying to kill him in 2006-7.
His role as a "good guy" or a "bad guy" depends on how he voted on the (allegedly) illegal investments and trading practices at Aquila (now part of the Black Hills Corp).
How can his role be analyzed objectively? Has that already been done? What was found out?... and by who?
Yes Victor! The media will continue to try to push us to an "electable" candidate. Well "We the People" are tired of doing the media's bidding to elect the electable. We the People are ready to take a stand on "Right." The media will tell us that Sarah Palin is unelectable. Well folks, it is time to elect the unelectable. Time to reject "can't be done." Time for
SARAH PALIN IN 2012 for a Fundamental Restoration of America!!!!
It's gonna take a few more debates to help us settle on a candidate, and I'm afraid that the person who wins our support will still be the "flavor of the week," winning by virtue only of their current popularity when it comes time to actually go to the polls - and having little or nothing to do with their actual qualifications for the job.
I wish we could have a sit down debate with only the conservative candidates present, hashing out the issues round-table style, so we can actually hear their ideas and interactions beyond the soundbite. I remember back during the second Bush candidacy: the debate between Gore and Bush was a sleeper. Nothing but sound bites and cheap jabs at the other side. The vice-presidential debate, however, between Cheney and Lieberman was lively, informative, and gave the viewer a real chance to hear their ideas articulated and defended. That's the sort of thing I'd like to see between our conservative choices.
I'll keep hoping and wishing and praying for something to clear the muddy waters.
What a great idea. My wife & I were just saying the same thing. You find out nothing in the debates. How about some sort of White Papers from the candidates on issues so we could read them over more than once and really know where they stand rather than 1 minute sound bites. I did really like the Cheney-Lieberman debate.
Mike, it wont just be newt but everyone of these so called candidates. There was a question ask of Perry at the very first debate he was in about what was he going to do about the hispanic vote, and , thanks to the Crap that Bachmann and Santorum brought up, Perry was unable to answer that question. Perry, realizing the necessity to bring in the hispanic vote, created a position in his cablinet for an hispanic outreach program. It just might be the efforts of not only Perry but that of the Republican Party of Texas who also just created this same position. Also, many of us County Chairman are creating outreach programs for the Hispanics and quite frankly dont give a damn about what some of these postings says about Perry's immigration policy. These postings only give a clear indication to the lack of knowlege of our border and the total ignorance to any succesful solution.
The obvious inability to differenciate between inferences, implications, facts or fiction just possibly will put up an incompetant representing the party. Indiviuals inability to think threw all of the consequences of each indiviual should they get the nomination very possibly mean jeoprodizing many existing "Red" states. Behind the scenes this is being discussed, lets see if anyone perceives what is said.