Romney won Florida last night. That was not a big surprise. He outspent Newt Gingrich 6-1.
The Republican establishment is already declaring Romney the nominee. The race is far from over but does the establishment realize the consequences of their actions?
What does a Romney nomination mean?
It means the death of the Republican Party and certain loss the Republican Party.
Many Tea Party activists are going to walk from the Party if Romney is the nominee.
The Tea Party is a collection of people who felt compelled to transition from citizens to activists in favor of limited government and fiscal restraint. Many sacrifice time away from family, work, and life in a desperate attempt to save the nation they love, from their perspective. My concern is that the Tea Party will recoil from supporting a Republican Party that is headed by John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, and Mitt Romney.
I spoke with one such Tea Partier, Rebecca from Florida, over the weekend. She's a retired detective turned young stay-at-home mom, who labels herself a "generic Tea Partier." What she had to say was fascinating and illuminating, and it should concern just about every smart Republican. She was gracious enough to let me publicize her thoughts here at Ricochet.
"I don't trust him, and I don't think he can win. He is utterly unaware of how offensive his disconnect with the average American is. He drops $10K bets like it's nothing. He thinks $342,000 isn't very much to make in a year," Rebecca said. "I don't begrudge him his wealth - he worked for it and earned it and that is admirable. But I hate his lack of awareness of how super-wealthy he is. His flip-flops are legendary."
"Oh, and he invented Obamacare."
"I see a Romney nomination causing Tea Partiers like me to tune out. We are already disheartened by the congressional leadership. Romney will be the final nail in the coffin. He is completely uninspiring, and is everything we have been working so hard to defeat within the GOP," Rebecca said. "Don't even get me started on that Bain Capital picture. Ugh. There is no way he can win. And I don't want to have to defend him while he tries."
"What is the point in becoming educated on candidates and politics, arguing with my friends, taking the time away from my family - to end up with the guy McCain can't even look in the eye. Why bother?" Rebecca says. "Obviously the "establishment" has already decided it's Romney's turn, and to hell with what we want. I feel like I'm being patted on the head and told "Now go vote for Romney like a good little girl. We know what's best."... I don't even do that to my 3-year-old. It's insulting. It doesn't make me want to campaign for him."
"It honestly makes me want to skip the election, but Obama scares me too much to do that. I do think a Romney presidency will hurt the GOP brand though, and make it hard for a real conservative to have a shot," Rebecca said.
For every Republican who whines with the “Romney is electable” mantra, this should be required reading.
Romney is not electable because he is not going to have the base with him. Obama will have his base, but conservatives are ready to walk if Romney is the nominee.
More importantly for the Republican Party, if the Tea Party tunes out, members will look for something else. The Tea Party rallies were so huge in 2009 because citizens had no other choice. If the citizens are given a choice between two liberals in 2012, the Tea Party will start looking for an alternative.
There are alternatives out there and that does not even consider the possibility Tea Party members might create a new alternative.
The Party is rushing headlong to the same mistake it has made repeatedly over the years, trying to crush the conservative and give us the establishment liberal.
This time, all it means is a slow motion suicide for the Republican Party.
Actually, the evidence from the Florida primary shows that Romney will have the GOP base, in November. Romney won EVERY demographic, including professed TEA Partiers.
But there's more. Ron "Blame America First" Paul won 7% of the vote. It's a pretty safe bet that almost every one of those people will vote Libertarian in November. They always do. So if you eliminate those votes from the results, it means that Romney won 49% of the votes of actual Republicans.
Furthermore, Newt's inertia is downward and the schedule is against him. Romney won Nevada by 51% in 2008 and is going into that state even stronger this year. He also has major connections to Michigan and will win that state handily. Newt isn't even on the ballot in Missouri. Even though that state is only a beauty contest a Romney win there sill increase his war chest. In fact, because of the schedule, Romney will very likely trounce Newt is every February primary. Romney's war chest will grow, while Newt's shrinks. By Super Tuesday, Romney will be flush and flooding the airwaves, while Newt will be struggling to afford a 15 second spot between 3:00 AM infomercials, in Bismark, ND.
It's a fact of politics that wins generate cash and loses deplete reserves. The schedule and Newt's downward inertia combine to tell us that Newt's campaign is on life-support and lack of cash will soon pull the plug on him, whether he wants to pull out or not. If anyone has a chance of unseating Romney, it's Santorum, since his campaign has remained stable throughout the campaign and he is the closest thing to a Conservative left in the race (which is not saying a lot). But if Newt were to drop out, there is a very remote possibility that Santorum could rise to the top. It's not likely, but far more likely that Newt would be able to recover.
Once Newt drops out and Romney's campaign against Obama gets into full swing, even hard-line TEA Partiers will be behind him. Like me, they won't be enthusiastic about having to support someone who is less than the perfect Conservative. But like me, they'll get behind him to prevent Obama from winning a second term.
It's now time to set aside our support for losing candidates (mine were first Cain and then Bachmann). There are no Conservatives left in the race and the winning RINO, is Romney. Let's get behind him and give him support, so that when he becomes president, he will feel that he owes the TEA Party at least a small debt. If we just continue to bash him, all that it will gain the TEA Party is his animosity and that's what we don't need. Let's give him reason to feel that he owes the TEA Party and we can then collect on that debt, after he becomes president. At this point, it's our last best hope.
James, unfortunately, this time around again, it won't matter. We all held our noses and voted for McCain and look where it got us, nowhere. The same will happen this time, too.
It is a known fact that only a conservative could beat a liberal. Two liberals like BHO and Mitt will cancel each other out. the winner is who has more money and corruption following him. It really doesn't matter, unless we could unite behind Newt get his nomination for him and then we may have a chance to beat BHO and oust him from this country forever.
I know we’re disappointed with the Florida primaries, but I disagree that it is a slow motion death for the party. I also disagree with my fellow Tea Party conservatives who will either not vote for Romney, or not vote at all. Apathy is our true enemy. This is but a single political battle in what is sure to be an epic ideological war our country has not seen since the Great Compromise era of the 1850s.
Our singular objective for the current battle is to vote out President Obama and as many Democratic Congressional members as possible.
From the get go, Sarah Palin recognized the corruption inherent in both parties and sought first to clean her own house. From that moment to the 2008 and 2010 elections, state governments across the US have elected conservative Republicans in record numbers. Just look what has been done by Tea Party representatives in the state legislatures of Virginia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, to name a few. Now even Indiana is adopting Right-To-Work.
The Tea Party Republicans in the US Congress, led by my home state of Virginia representative Eric Cantor, have brought our message to the President, the status quo Republicans, the Speaker of the House and the American people.
These are not small gains. I can tell by the level of nonsense pouring out of the liberal media that the progressive left is running scared to the point that they are actually promoting Mitt Romney as the preferred Republican should Obama lose.
We’ll fight this war united one battle at a time. I will be in DC on February 27 to let our elected officials know that not only are we still here, but that we’ve just begun to fight. Russ
You are absolutely correct. But I don't think it will happen in one 2012 election. I think it will take a conserted effort over many elections before true conservatives return control of the government to the citizens.
After the 2012 election the Republican party is going to have an expected demise.
Start a new party and you split the votes and a lefty gets in every time. So Romney is a rich man-90% of the Washington crowd are millionaires and some of them didn't earn it as Romney did by investing, using their brains and making sucesses of their ventures they made it by crony capitalism, corruption and selling their souls to the highest bidder.
I am tired of hearing tea party people condemn Romney but praise Gingrich who has spent his whole life in Washington and has written books. He is a knowledgeable man but has flaws such as cheating on wives and he supporting the creation of the Dept of Education under Carter that opened up our schools for a union and left wing takeover and ruined our educational system. Even though his campaign coffers have been quite low he has spent $133,000 on chartered flights, paid Newt. Inc $37,000 for mailing lists and has paid himself $253,000. I get the impression he is not a good money manager and this country so far in debt we need a cool head to start making headway on our problems.
Obama with his Alinsky playbook and his Chicago mobster friends have got to go while there is still something left of America. I would have wished for a better candidate but Romney is the only one who has a ghost of a chance of ridding the White House of these people. To say that you will act in such a way as to leave this bunch running the country is insane.,
Amen Jean my thoughts exactly totally "insane".
You need to get informed. http://www.snopes.com/politics/romney/search.asp
The Tea Party would be making a terrible mistake if they don't vote for the Republican candidate regardless of who it is. The alternative is 4 more years of Obama and that means the end of our country as we know it. The important thing is to get the House and Senate who will pressure any Republican president to pass the bills to correct Obama's mess.