The Magic Is Gone: In an e-mail to Columbia University journalism professor Thomas Edsall, political scientist Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University explains why the Obama campaign cannot afford to alienate white working class voters while pandering to minority voters:
If the Democratic Party can do something to win one more non-college white vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it can do something to win one more college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it wins one more non-college white vote and loses one college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote in the process, it is not any closer to winning. The interesting strategic questions have entirely to do with the marginal shifts in vote probabilities produced in different groups by different sorts of appeals, and their collateral political costs (whether alienation or opportunity costs).
Unfortunately for Obama’s calculus, RealClearPolitics Chief Political Correspondent David Paul Kuhn reports that he “does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008”:
Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.
Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 - presuming all else remains constant since 2008 - Romney would rout Obama.
Of course, America has changed since Reagan. Non-Hispanic whites were 89 percent of the electorate when Reagan first won the White House in 1980. They were 85 percent in 1988. By 2008, whites were 74 percent. That shift has upended the electoral landscape. But only so much. …
Should Romney win the whites Obama lost, Romney will only need to perform as well as John McCain with minorities to win. …
The white margin to watch: 61-39. That’s the rough break-even point. Obama likely needs more than 39 percent of whites to assure re-election. Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenarios).
Kuhn concludes that “diversity may not prove enough to save Obama.”
Tags: 2012, Democrats, Obama., blacks, hispanics, minority, whites
Permalink Reply by Debrajoe Smith-Beatty on You bet Obama has lost the white vote.
Permalink Reply by Rich Knoch on What continues to astonish me is that obama can get even 40% of the votes . . . . in an honest and fair election.
Stalin is credited with stating, "It's not the people who vote that counts, its the people who count the votes".
Our votes will be tallied by a Spanish corporation after being certified by each States Secretary.
Read this . . . . . . then ask why?
Vote certify by: http://www.nowtheendbegins.com/blog/?p=5472
Vote Talley by: http://www.westernjournalism.com/spanish-company-will-count-america...
The only way to insure a fair election is a landslide vote against obama and his minions.
Permalink Reply by Athan E. on The way to win back the WH is to show, prove and persuade other people that BHO is bad for the future of this country.
Anything from the upcoming collapse of the economy, to having the productive people pay and feed the unproductive ones, to liberalism going amok, to against business and innovation, to a totalitarian government that knows better than you what is good for you, and more.
Ronmey will need every vote he can get. I am really concerned regarding voting fraud (does anyone remember Nevada?) and pressure tactics. Also, what is happening with voter registration (Florida for example). Please stay vigilant and report fraud when you see it.
Permalink Reply by CoChair on The South will not reelect him, so that leaves the North and where are there more liberals and independents, who really are liberals but dont have the guts to admit it. The North is so indoctrinated with the Union mentality, they flip and the sad thing their children and grandchildre will pay the price. But what really makes me mad is that my children and Grandchildren will pay the price.
Look at Romney right now, what is a Tax to everyone it is a penalty to him. But he's just another Brown, Snowe, Collins, Boehner, Cantor, and Ryan, all are whimps.
Permalink Reply by JOHN DELASAUX on All of the "stimulus" spending is directed to areas and contracts which involve Obama's union buddies.
They supported his election, and he is paying them back, using OUR money.
And, of course, they will vote for him again, because they know he will funnel even more money into their construction contracts.
The union bosses know how to keep a finger on the power structure -- they have huge amounts of union dues to spend, money that they extract from every union member every month.
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The only way for us to beat these criminal union bosses is to GET OUT THE VOTE !
Permalink Reply by Sharon D. Minton on Let's make sure white vote, and all other votes, defeat obama. Install E-Verify in each state, to be used for voter identification, and the question should have its answer without the expensive statistical analysis or surveys.
Unfortunately there are some white Americans who would "vote for Adoph Hitler and his Jewish policies" if he were running as a Democrat.
Permalink Reply by Billy Bowlegs on Jeff;
You should have included Republicans in that comment also.
Permalink Reply by catherine deanni on Why do you think Obama stopped the deportation of illegals & now telling our border agents not engage with illegals at the border, but run & hide. You have to be stupid not to know what he and his socialize friends are up to. Promise at free ride to citizenship and all the free benefits they will be able to get along with given there families who is not here yet, a free pass to come in. Just go to the polo's using fake ID & vote for him, that is why his justice department will not let state purge there voter rolls.
Permalink Reply by Mary Baker on Okay, I have an assignment for every white person in America. You must form a united front. You must articulate the Judeo-Christian values that God used to build this great nation. And from now on you must protect that heritage. No one else will. Remember Deuteronomy 6:1-7, teach the Word of God when your coming in and when you are coming out. You have to come back to your roots. And you have to stop allowing liberals who hate you to dictate who it is you will become. The best thing that happened to blacks is that we were shipped to America to a place where we would learn about God and His Son Christ Jesus. People like Obama hate our God, and call real Christianity the white man's God. Well I love the God and I don't care if He is the white man's God, the Jewish man's God are whatever. He is a great and awesome God and I have been immensely blessed by following His Word, that was brought here on the first ship from Europe. If you come together in Christ as our founding fathers did who fought for the good of all men, many will be blessed. But if you allow Obama and liberal's evil to become your evil, then neither you are them will ever be pleasing to God. Don't let him turn you to his hateful ways. The fruit of the Spirit is love, joy, peace, faithfulness, goodness, kindness, gentleness, patience and self control against such there is no law. And that is the character that shone through our founding fathers. The only way we will be a blessed nation again, is if we become a reverent, moral nation again. Stop buying your children, rap music that destroys their souls and mind and goes against everything you believe in. Stop allowing liberal anti-God entertainers to be your children's role model. Stop giving your money to movie makers so that they can further corrupt your children. Stop sending them to liberal public schools and colleges so that they can intimidate them and manipulate them and everything you have taught them to believe in. As long as you are feeding our enemies financially, they will have the ammo to destroy us. Money talks and you have it, but if you use it for ungodliness, ungodliness will take over and destroy you and your children and everyone else in the process. If white parent's would stop buying rap music the rap industry would dry up in no time. And you would stop funding a vehicle that only wants to destroy your child's mind. If white families would stop going to the movies and buying all the goods of the enemy Hollywood and their riches would dwindle in no time. If you tell the Starbucks, the Gap, JC Penny's and all of these other conglomerates that you will not spend your money anymore at their stores because of their support of immorality, they would change so fast it would turn this nation upside down. Think about it.
Permalink Reply by JC Patriot on Thanks, Mary. You are an excellent example of someone that teaches (and leads) in an endearing way.
Permalink Reply by Lawrence Brown on Mary: You are correct. I have been saying this for last 3 1/2 years. Supporting these companies is like feeding your enemies. Thanks
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