The Magic Is Gone: In an e-mail to Columbia University journalism professor Thomas Edsall, political scientist Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University explains why the Obama campaign cannot afford to alienate white working class voters while pandering to minority voters:
If the Democratic Party can do something to win one more non-college white vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it can do something to win one more college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it wins one more non-college white vote and loses one college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote in the process, it is not any closer to winning. The interesting strategic questions have entirely to do with the marginal shifts in vote probabilities produced in different groups by different sorts of appeals, and their collateral political costs (whether alienation or opportunity costs).
Unfortunately for Obama’s calculus, RealClearPolitics Chief Political Correspondent David Paul Kuhn reports that he “does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008”:
Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.
Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 - presuming all else remains constant since 2008 - Romney would rout Obama.
Of course, America has changed since Reagan. Non-Hispanic whites were 89 percent of the electorate when Reagan first won the White House in 1980. They were 85 percent in 1988. By 2008, whites were 74 percent. That shift has upended the electoral landscape. But only so much. …
Should Romney win the whites Obama lost, Romney will only need to perform as well as John McCain with minorities to win. …
The white margin to watch: 61-39. That’s the rough break-even point. Obama likely needs more than 39 percent of whites to assure re-election. Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenarios).
Kuhn concludes that “diversity may not prove enough to save Obama.”
Tags: 2012, Democrats, Obama., blacks, hispanics, minority, whites
Permalink Reply by Gerald Wayne Cossette on What voters didn't understand Is that you can't give everyone what they want as O ama promised to give each and everyone. It's not possible, it's a ploy of the "devil" Tell people what they want to hear; then turn on those that won't believe you or support your hidden agenda. He is obviously in opposition to religious freedom (truth) and free will. Much of the population has tunnel hearing and understanding but don't look at the consequences of all his promises...the destruction of free enterprise and the creation of a socialistic government controlled society.
Permalink Reply by JC Patriot on When he promises everything to everyone, he is only giving the half of the equation that he wants everyone to hear. His leftist strategy of appearing so generous wouldn't work if he also told them the truth -- that he was going to have to take things from somebody else in order to do so.
That's why "liberals always lie" -- they do not speak the whole truth.
Permalink Reply by JOHN DELASAUX on That's the whole reason for the Class Warfare that Premier Obama practices so well. He wants the poor to hate the rich.
That makes is OK to take from the rich -- because they are "bad", "greedy" people.
But, many people today are poor just because unemployment is so high and pervasive.
And, that's why Premier Obama keeps the unemployment rate so high.
He thinks that it will get him more votes.
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Did you ever get a job from a poor man?
Rich people are our best hope, as long as we don't tax them broke.
They just love to invest their money in companies that will grow and need more workers, and that makes jobs.
Premier Obama doesn't want that to happen, at least until after the election.
Poor people with no hope are his best hope.
Permalink Reply by dave williams on Its the Jewish vote, or lack of it that will kill romney. Unfortunately they are a race that still doesn't get it. I have many fine jewish friends, an they still think obama is doing ok.
Permalink Reply by charley horse on Are you saying that the Mormons DO GET IT ???? Give ME a BREAK !!
Permalink Reply by JOHN DELASAUX on What does that statement mean? Give us more "meat" to work with, or we will have to believe the other animal in your avatar is smarter than you.
Permalink Reply by American Infidel on Dave, the polls in our country show that many Jews in America are waking up regarding Hussein, and many will be backing Romney. Hussein's support among Jews in this country has taken a nosedive, and there are no signs he will regain the ground he has lost with them. Here is a recent post from the Republican Jewish Coalition regarding Romney and Hussein:
http://www.rjchq.org/Newsroom/newsdetail.aspx?id=c0d1dc16-b7cd-439c...
Permalink Reply by Gerald Wayne Cossette on It's good to hear the Jewish population is getting wise (my key board is actn like an old typewriter-ticking keys) The next card up Obama's sleeve may be the military and Iran. We are currently sendn ships, mindsweepers, and jets to keep open the straights of Hormous-spelling off- which Iran threatens to close because of recent sanctions over the nuclear issues. Better fill up now. Does Ob want us in a war to preserve his presidency? I wouldn't put it past him!
Permalink Reply by Paula Kennedy on I know me too.... BUT there are those who wouldn't dream of voting any other way but Democrat!
My good Jewish friend in Fort Lauderdale, who proclaimed to be a "Bill Clinton Democrat" said that he is not voting for Obama this fall. He admitted to have voted for the President in '08, after supporting Hillary in the primary. He described Mitt Romney as "Bill Clinton without the sex scandals."
When I asked him, "how did he expect Romney to do in Broward County," he predicted.
"About 50/50."
When I asked him "how" even half of the Jewish population could vote for a President who had clearly favored Moslems and had been somewhat "icy" toward Israel, he mused.
"Habit."
Permalink Reply by Vern Shotwell on Exactly, Jeff.
Those who watch events in Israel are less and less likely to support Obama.
The others? Well, you can lead a horse to water, but..
I must say Romney is making the right moves.
Permalink Reply by Vern Shotwell on Thanks for the info, Victoria!
I had no idea that Non-Hispanic whites had dropped 15% in less than 3 decades. If the rate continues, will they be on the endangered species list within a century?
Indeed, the linked Quinnipiac poll shows stark differences of opinions along both racial and ethnic lines....greater than I expected. The poll is tough slogging...a lot of information presented!
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