The Magic Is Gone: In an e-mail to Columbia University journalism professor Thomas Edsall, political scientist Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University explains why the Obama campaign cannot afford to alienate white working class voters while pandering to minority voters:
If the Democratic Party can do something to win one more non-college white vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it can do something to win one more college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it wins one more non-college white vote and loses one college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote in the process, it is not any closer to winning. The interesting strategic questions have entirely to do with the marginal shifts in vote probabilities produced in different groups by different sorts of appeals, and their collateral political costs (whether alienation or opportunity costs).
Unfortunately for Obama’s calculus, RealClearPolitics Chief Political Correspondent David Paul Kuhn reports that he “does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008”:
Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.
Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 - presuming all else remains constant since 2008 - Romney would rout Obama.
Of course, America has changed since Reagan. Non-Hispanic whites were 89 percent of the electorate when Reagan first won the White House in 1980. They were 85 percent in 1988. By 2008, whites were 74 percent. That shift has upended the electoral landscape. But only so much. …
Should Romney win the whites Obama lost, Romney will only need to perform as well as John McCain with minorities to win. …
The white margin to watch: 61-39. That’s the rough break-even point. Obama likely needs more than 39 percent of whites to assure re-election. Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenarios).
Kuhn concludes that “diversity may not prove enough to save Obama.”
Tags: 2012, Democrats, Obama., blacks, hispanics, minority, whites
Permalink Reply by Bruce Wakefield on Aw couldn't happen to a bigger POS. Buh bye barack. I always say when a POS is drowning tthrow him an anchor. Can we manage to throw an anchor to this POS?
Permalink Reply by Steven E Anderson on How about a battleship anchor
Until the Scotus decision I would have said no way this man can win another term but after that disgusting traitor showed his real colors, Obama can steal the election and the courts will fall to their knees and kiss his feet. This election cannot come fast enough. I stand for Liberty and will accept nothing else.
Permalink Reply by JOHN DELASAUX on Just your own vote is not enough.
You need to ensure his defeat by bringing two other votes to the polling place with you.
Find two other good voters and make sure that they vote on election day.
Permalink Reply by Lawrence Brown on He never had my vote. I heard his speeches before his election and understood every word he spoke. I guess other whites did not understand English he spoke. Comprehension of English is what white voters missed.
Permalink Reply by Steven E Anderson on I understood. He said he was going to steal all our wealth. People should have listened to that one thing. A communist will always tell you what he is going to do to you if you listen to what he actually says.
Permalink Reply by Dan Bruner on In a nation where over 40% of the working age citizens do not pay any income tax...its a rough road for a candidate to run on the old principle of personal responsibility. The take care of me attitude is pervasive. Look at farming states Obama won last election...they love their handouts as well.
Permalink Reply by Paula Kennedy on I believe it's true that Whites voted for obama to show they were not racists! When I first laid eyes on him...I couldn't put my finger on it right away...but I knew there was something very wrong with him! He stole the first election and, GOD help us if he can do that again!
Permalink Reply by Lawrence Brown on Paula: I disagree with you. Obama did not steal election,the white voters gave it to him and sold out their country. A child would of understood his words and known that he would destroy USA. Did he not say what his plans were for USA? yes he did. Did you understand his speeches before his elections? I have family that I disowned because they wanted change and did not care what happened to USA.
Permalink Reply by Carolyn Hamilton on If he hadn't lied, White voters would not have voted his way. So in my opinion he stole the election with lies. (well maybe) Now for goodness sake, don't ever think I voted for him.. I too saw and heard a lot that I saw through.
But there were way too many that forgot what an election is.. If they chose to vote for his being the first negro, they did wrong. Today for sure we can all say it was a mistake, big time.
My two cents..:O)
Permalink Reply by Lawrence Brown on Carolyn: What lies did Obama tell during his campaign. I heard and understood exactly what he said. Please tell me his lies.
Permalink Reply by JC Patriot on He said he would not raise taxes. He said he would close Gitmo. He said he would win the "good" war in Afghanistan against the Taliban. He said he would unite the country. He said he would not accept public money for his campaign. He said he would never have any lobbyists in his administration. He said he would not cater to special interests with government contracts. He said the healthcare debates would all be on C-SPAN.
That's enough for now -- I'm tired. But we all agree he also told us he was a socialist with his comment to Joe the plumber.
© 2013 Created by Judson Phillips.
