The Magic Is Gone: In an e-mail to Columbia University journalism professor Thomas Edsall, political scientist Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University explains why the Obama campaign cannot afford to alienate white working class voters while pandering to minority voters:
If the Democratic Party can do something to win one more non-college white vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it can do something to win one more college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote, without alienating anyone else, it is exactly one vote closer to winning. If it wins one more non-college white vote and loses one college white vote, or Latino vote, or Asian vote in the process, it is not any closer to winning. The interesting strategic questions have entirely to do with the marginal shifts in vote probabilities produced in different groups by different sorts of appeals, and their collateral political costs (whether alienation or opportunity costs).
Unfortunately for Obama’s calculus, RealClearPolitics Chief Political Correspondent David Paul Kuhn reports that he “does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008”:
Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.
Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 - presuming all else remains constant since 2008 - Romney would rout Obama.
Of course, America has changed since Reagan. Non-Hispanic whites were 89 percent of the electorate when Reagan first won the White House in 1980. They were 85 percent in 1988. By 2008, whites were 74 percent. That shift has upended the electoral landscape. But only so much. …
Should Romney win the whites Obama lost, Romney will only need to perform as well as John McCain with minorities to win. …
The white margin to watch: 61-39. That’s the rough break-even point. Obama likely needs more than 39 percent of whites to assure re-election. Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenarios).
Kuhn concludes that “diversity may not prove enough to save Obama.”
Tags: 2012, Democrats, Obama., blacks, hispanics, minority, whites
Permalink Reply by george repasky on my dog dumplin( daschun could beat obama ) and probably romney too lol
Permalink Reply by American Infidel on JPS, Someone needs to tell those poor lost souls that the King of Kings and the Lord of Lords does not need to debase Himself by running for office in a backslidden country like ours. Their whole idiotic movement smacks of blasphemy to me, to belittle Him like that. Jesus created the entire universe, and now they are going to write Him in on their ballots for President this fall? Brilliant. Just brilliant. The real way to "vote for Jesus" is to make Him Lord and Savior of your life, and then live your life according to the Bible, as best you can, with His help. Meanwhile, the actual Christians in this country need to do what we have always done, and that is to realize that, of course, we'll never have the candidate of our dreams. All we can do is vote for the best choice out of the people who are actually on the ballot. If you don't like the choices on the ballot, run for office yourself. Work your way up from the PTA to the Mayor's office, to the Governor's mansion, to the Vice Presidential slot, just like my favorite Alaskan moose-hunter did. We should all put up or shut up, and in the meantime, we all need to VOTE for someone who is actually on the ballot, namely the Republican nominee! Wasted votes given over to foolish schemes would only serve to help give the Jihadist-in-Chief another term to finish his destruction of our country.
Permalink Reply by JOHN DELASAUX on These idiots will gladly throw away their vote, and help guarantee an Obama victory.
If we could trace down who is behind this crazy idea, it would likely be Soros.
Permalink Reply by Dave Newbry on Well, I'm guessing you haven't included California in your calculus. The sheeple here are gonna vote for him just to prove (again) they're not racists and still idiots.
Permalink Reply by Jo DeFranco on Sad to say but I don't know where the author got their info from. Unfortunately I know far toooooo many whites (especially in Calif) that still pee on themselves when they hear him.
Permalink Reply by Jim Coles on I think it's a fair bet that Mr. Comrade-Imam Obama won't get my vote this fall...
Permalink Reply by HorizonScanner on Why should people of Latin heritage who immigrated generations ago, or immigrated recently by following the law everyone else who ever became citizens followed, vote for the unjust behavior of people who break the rules they themselves observed? Mitt must appeal to the patriotic citizenship of all who believe in America! He must look each of them in the eye over t.v. and appeal to their individual consciences. He must make this a meme of his campaign. Undecided voters, like vast flocks of wheeling birds, will break for Mitt and against ZeroKing.
ZeroKing's photo of him leaning back jaw jutting with Mussolini-esque arrogance must be projected widely.
Those boring anti-Mitt attack ads Z's Hollywood cohorts are using can be countered by new ads that show small business people in Boston watching Obama's attack ads and refuting them.
Permalink Reply by Bruce Baker on The interesting sentence in this article is ... the CONVERSE IS TRUE, Obama cannot win without the white vote.
Of course the media beats the drum how Romney cannot win without this block of votes of that block of votes ... but they fail to cite the reverse that OBAMA CANNOT win without some other block of votes either.
I wonder how much longer Obama can afford to bombard large sections of America with his media that he is still the true god of politics and that everything is going to plan.... before people actually start checking the facts put out by the U.S. DOT-GOV sites that prove most of Obama's facts are half-truths or flat out lies? Here we are AGAIN, July before the November election. How many people will be fooled .... again.
Permalink Reply by Paula Kennedy on Obama can lose the popularity vote! Doesn't matter... IF he gets the Electoral College vote he wins! Period!
Permalink Reply by catherine deanni on Why do you think Obama wants all these illegals to come into our country? To make sure there are more of them then the white, so he will not need us to keep his job. He also need most of the people poor and depending on the government for there everyday needs. So he wants to make sure he brings in billions of low income people and make the rest of us cover there needs pushing us into poverty.
Permalink Reply by Ray Harrison on Diversity may not prove much, but Ignorance may! Ignorance and apathy.
Permalink Reply by hunter60 on Who the hell cares whether one of these presidential pretenders garners the white vote? Our enslavement continues to deepen anyway. Government is producing more parasites by the hour as it aligns itself to steal everything else thats left. Anyone that thinks Romney is going to stop or even slow down statism is absolutely deluded. He's stated that he wishes to replace the ObamaDeathCareTax law with a concoction of his own. With Romney all we get is a different flavor of sh!t.
© 2013 Created by Judson Phillips.
