In Search of 50.1%

Make no mistake!

Barack Obama knows that a large part of America loathes him and his agenda. He knew it before he took his oath of office. The key is insuring that he retains a tiny majority that will allow him to continue his presidency. The remaining 49.9% who didn't support him, prepare to pay the consequences!

It will come down to the states and electoral votes.  Obama would prefer a simple majority system in America. He will likely try to move in that direction if re-elected. For now, we have the electoral college.

The East looks secure for the President. This is the part of America that holds one-fifth of the population and less than 20% of the land territory. In recent times the East has become a land of "unions, high taxes and secular humanism." The East has superior mass transit, prestigious private institutions of higher learning and much control over the rest of the nation. Shaping of public opinion begins in New York City. The United Nations in based in New York City. So is the Council of Foreign Relations. NYC is the home of globalists.

It is probable that the East will vote in bloc for Obama. New Hampshire might be the only defect.

The West Coast is solidly "blue." True, there is an outside possibility that Oregon will surprise. But trendy, mostly liberal, California and union controlled, Washington will finish in the "blue" column. Hawaii will join them. Alaska will stay "red."

This leaves the "middle of the country."  Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa could all be competitive. Between them are 50 electoral votes at stake.

Ohio is the biggest prize with 18 votes. As a result, Rob Portman has drawn attention as a possible running mate for Mitt Romney. My guess is, Portman won't add much to the final outcome either way. In reality, he attracts the same voter that Romney does. The state is divided and the division is very much "south for Romney, north for Obama."

The Wisconsin recall attempt failure encouraged Republicans. How it translates in the general election is another question. "Tommy Thompson Republicans" identify with Romney. The state could be a "cliffhanger." Obama's historic support for public sector unions won't help Democrats in the "Badger state" this November.

Michigan has lost 750,000 residents since 2008. Most of them were from the Detroit area. The question is "how many were Democrats?" A friend of mine from Grand Rapids predicts that "Michigan will be a surprisingly easy win for Romney."

Iowa has six electoral votes and is heavily Evangelical. At this writing it is a toss-up. The running mate could have an impact. Romney doesn't excite Evangelicals. But, Obama's advocation of "same sex marriage" went over like a lead balloon.  

Some say that Obama only needs to win "only three" of these four states. Others say, "anything less than a sweep" would be a problem.

Obama has written off the south, or at least most of it. North Carolina and Virginia are in play. But, the going will more difficult than in 2008. The key in both states will be the Evanglical turnout. If the typical 30% becomes 50%, Obama will lose both states. Obamacare is not popular here. And the same sex marriage stance by the administration get's these voters attention. Between Virginia and North Carolina, 28 electoral votes are at stake. If Obama can gain a split, he will likely win the election.

The key to the south is Florida. Obama bested John McCain by 250,000 votes in 2008. If Marco Rubio is Romney's running mate, Democrats can forget about winning the Sunshine state. The 29 electoral votes are a "must" for Republicans. If Florida is off the board for Democrats, it will translate to a very close election.

The West? Only New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada look to be in play for the Democrats.

New Mexico will have former governor, Gary Johnson on the ballot as a Libertarian. He should pick off about between 10-20% of the votes. Most will be Republican voters. The five electoral votes will probably stay with Obama.  47%  of the population is Hispanic. Governor,Susana Martinez is a "no-nonsense" Mexican woman who doesn't mince words. The employment numbers are dismal, especially for young Latinos.

Nevada's economy remains in the doldrums. The electoral count is up to six. Surprising help could come from Rubio, who lived in Las Vegas as a child. Reflecting those memories as the "son of a bartender and hotel maid" should have an impact on Latino voters who make up 25% of the Nevada electorate. A Hispanic Repubican Governor won't hurt. Neither will the 25% LDS voters who are sure to participate.

Colorado has nine electoral votes and is evenly divided. The rural areas areas are solidly behind Romney. Denver, Boulder and the urban areas favor Obama. The oil and gas interests should play a major role in the election. A "pro-energy" administration would result inthe creation of thousands of new jobs in Colorado. Romney is expected to be energy friendly. Ranching, mining and farming interests are behind him. The "Granola Heads" and "Subarus" are with the President. So are the public sector employees. Expect another close outcome.

In short, the lines are drawn. Obama knows that he will never win any of the states not mentioned. Therefore, he could care less about their disposition. A victory for him would mean more hard times for them. Unless, of course, they are Texas!

If victorious, look for Obama to "ram Obamacare down the throats" of those states who oppose it. Expect a nullification movement to arise. Obama anticipates this;. He even predicts civil unrest. That's why the Department of Homeland Security has been put on notice.

Obama ran as a unifier. He has proven to be the exact opposite. Our country has not been this divided since 1861. The hope is, Romney will win these close states. With Florida off the board, he will be within 50 electoral college votes of the presidency.

Obama wants a knockout. Florida will give it to him. Losing Florida will force him to win states holding either bad economies or conservative moral values. This could translate to losses in North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa and Nevada.

This equates to 260 electoral votes for Republicans. Close, but short of the mark! However, Obama would still need to win Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico. He could lose only Colorado, or both New Hampshire and New Mexico. The odds would not be in the President's favor! 

The importance of Florida cannot be exaggerated.