So much of what we talk about with politics is not good news. There is some good news to be had and it explains why we have had a lot of bad news lately.
What is the good news?
The good news is the chances of Barack Obama winning reelection are not good.
Almost every day we hear about new polls telling us who is winning the popular vote. The popular vote does not matter. Only the Electoral College vote matters.
In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain, winning 28 states (plus DC) against McCain’s 22 states. He took 365 electoral votes and McCain took 173.
One consistent fact is that every President in recent times who has been reelected to a second term has managed to win more states the second time around than he did the first time. Even George W. Bush did that in 2004.
For Barack Obama, the campaign is not focused on winning new states. It is focused on trying not to lose too many states. That is not a good sign.
When you look at the map right now, Obama can count on winning 16 states plus the District of Columbia. He does not have to spend a dime and he will have these states. This comes up to about 201 electoral votes.
Right now, Romney will win 23 states. He is starting off with one more than McCain had and is already at 191 electoral votes, which is more than McCain had.
That leaves 11 states that are the toss-ups.
They are:
Nevada
Colorado
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
All 11 toss up states went for Obama in 2008. That will not happen in 2012.
With that as the starting place, where do we go from here?
Let’s start with Nevada. In 2010, Harry Reid managed to get reelected with the help of massive voter fraud. The Great Obama Depression has devastated Las Vegas and Nevada has a huge Mormon population. Put that one in Romney’s column.
That takes Romney up to 197.
Colorado has been a disaster for the GOP. The once solidly red state has seen the Democrats pour a lot of money into it. Unfortunately in 2010, the Republican Party had a nasty split in the governor’s race. Those wounds have not yet healed and they will not be able to effectively deliver the state for Romney.
Colorado takes Obama to 210.
Iowa is a very socially conservative state. Though traditionally considered a blue state, in 2010 Iowa voters removed three Iowa Supreme Court justices who decided there was a right to gay marriage in the Iowa Constitution. Iowa has a Republican governor and Lieutenant Governor. One of its two senators is a Republican. 2 of the 5 Congressmen are Republicans. Their legislature is split with the Democrats controlling the state senate and the Republicans controlling the State House. This one will be close but Iowa will go red.
Iowa takes Romney to 203.
Wisconsin is another traditionally blue state that is going red. Governor Scott Walker is very popular and the Democrats have angered Wisconsin voters with their repeated attempts to recall him. Throw Paul Ryan into the mix and you have a lock.
Wisconsin takes Romney to 213.
Michigan could be close. Romney’s father was the governor of Michigan for a number of years and he has a lot of political ties to this traditionally blue state. Both the Governor and Lieutenant Governor are Republicans and Republicans now control both houses of the State legislature. Unfortunately for Romney, current polling show Obama not only up by 5 but also at 49%. Unless he drops dramatically, that is a bridge too far.
Michigan takes Obama to 226.
Ohio decided the race in 2004 and may do so again in 2012. John Kasich is a popular Republican governor. Republicans control a majority of the congressional delegation as well as both houses of the legislature. A recent Rasmussen report had Romney and Obama tied at 45%. That is unbelievably bad news for Obama.
Ohio goes for Romney and that take him to 231.
Pennsylvania is a traditionally blue state but it is considered a toss up. That is bad news for Obama who must expend resources to keep this state blue. Right now his polling looks strong enough to keep it blue but Pennsylvania could still be in play.
Right now give this one to Obama and push his total to 246.
That leaves four states, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
The Democrat leaning PPP polling has Obama at 51% in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is Romney’s home state, even though he claims Massachusetts. He launched his campaign in New Hampshire. It is really hard to believe New Hampshire will go blue this time, despite the polling.
Call New Hampshire for Romney. That takes him to 235.
Both Virginia and North Carolina have been solidly red states until the last election. Both states went for Obama. It is hard to believe either state will go for Obama this time. While some polls show Obama leading in North Carolina polls, the North Carolina Democratic Party is currently a disaster. Governor Beverly Perdue is so unpopular she is not running for reelection and the state party has been ripped apart by a sex scandal.
While Virginia does tend to be very blue near DC, the further you get away from DC, the more sanity returns. The most recent poll gives Romney a 3-point lead. George Allen, Virginia’s popular former governor is running for the senate and he will help. Both of these states will go red this time. That pushes Romney to 263.
That leaves Florida.
Haven’t we been here before?
The most recent polling has Romney up by one or two points. Rasmussen has Obama at 43% in Florida and that is the kiss of death for an incumbent. Obama has managed to offend almost every major demographic that he would need in Florida. Florida now has a Republican governor and Marco Rubio is a very popular senator. Republicans in the Florida Congressional Delegation outnumber Democrat 19-6. They control both houses of the state legislature.
Even with the massive voter fraud the Democrats will be pulling out this year, it is almost impossible to believe Florida will again go blue.
That would make the final score Romney 292 and Obama 246. And that would make Mitt Romney the 45th President of the United States.
For those of you looking for some good news, there it is.
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Tags: 45th, Mitt, Romney, barack, college, election, electoral, november, obama, president
Permalink Reply by Royce Latham on The election will rotate on what happens between now and then. Count on an October surprise.
To guarantee the removal of Obama we need a scandal. Thankfully Obama and Holder have provided the ammunition if you will, in the mass shootings. The Tucson shooting, being the most notorious, because it involves the murder of a Federal judge, John Roll. The motive, to keep Fast and Furious from going public. The unveiling of this alone will keep Fast and Furious alive. Fast and Furious is a wanton act of stimulating violence by arming drug cartels. It is not an innocent mistake made by uniformed underlings.
The other mass shootings in Aurora and Wisconsin smell to high heaven of multiple shooters and cover-ups. Going backwards the Tuscon shooting also will revive the involvement of Holder in a Fast and Furious-like arming of crazies in the Oklahoma City Bombing. Many of the connections have already been established.
The Inslaw murders set a precedent of a corrupt DOJ, withholding information from Congress, obfuscating, and murdering to keep their crimes secret. The Holder DOJ is following the same scenario. Watch the suicides and plane crashes carefully.
The eligibility issue should be amplified by those who care. This is an ongoing drain of money and resources that would otherwise be used to launch false attacks on Romney and Ryan by the re-election committee.
Permalink Reply by Don Davis on I've been thinking since he ran last time that, there would be an attempt upon his life. I felt that the muslim commnutiy would be behind it, with the help of liberals around him. Et tu, Brute!?
The main point being the catalyst to a massive uprising by blacks/minorities in this country,
Of course, it would be necessary to have a skin-head, supremacist, etc., etc.
It wouldn't even have to be successful, even an attempt would be the catalyst, I believe.
If anyone has read much, you know that, the MSM has had a blackout on the incidents of gangs, walking in, and robbing places blind, nothing being done about, or, little to nothing.
Many rapes, murders, robberies by same groups, and again, nothing done about it.
Something like the above would be like an open season call on whites. IF that were to happen, many poeple would be dead, not just blacks & whites, but others too.
On the other points you make, I've read about much of it, and it all stinks like so much rot in Denmark.
Permalink Reply by Royce Latham on Don
The Muslims would never take him out, but the liberals might and blame it on the Tea Party. However, since the truth of Kennedy's assassination is widely known thanks to the you tube 9 part documentary The Men Who Killed Kennedy, it is getting harder to believe the New York Times reporting and the Mass Media echo of the New York Times.
We now have a reliable report that the Tucson shooting was an MK Ultra hit on Judge Roll. The subsequent shootings are rife with inconsistencies and first hand reports of other people involved. The latest, the Sikh shooting was being edited in real time from the White House under the direction of the pseudo President Valerie Jarrett. The Tucson shooting fell under the direction of Eric Holder. It has been clear for a long time that case would never go to trial. I predict the Aurora shooting will never go to trial either. In the Sikh shooting they learned and had the assailant killed at the scene. Still the reports of multiple shooters disappeared the very day of the shooting.
Permalink Reply by Royce Latham on The Obama administration's thinking behind Fast and Furious.
Permalink Reply by Lizzie on Nice hostile liberal tirade... good example of the closed minds we're hoping to reach. Much easier for Mr. Higgins to hold the moral high ground in an echo chamber.
Permalink Reply by Merlin Olson on I think you are making a mistake in counting out Minnesota. The Republican Party has some very good candidates runnng this year. If you remember in 2010 republicans took control of both houses in St Paul. The only reason Dayton won was because of voter fraud. There have been nearly 2 dozen convictions of voter fraud since then. Minnesota has voter ID on the ballot this year along with The Marriage Amendment. I think conservatives are much more motivated than the left this year because of Obama's stand on Homosexual Marriage and his attack on churchs. His mandates on the abortion pill as a contraceptive has many people here in our part of the world very angry. I think Minnesota will go for Romney this time.
Permalink Reply by Diana Walter on This is good news. If I have anything to say about Florida (I live in Palm Beach County) it will be Red again! We are working so hard here too. I talk to everyone I see - at work, customers, at the stores, gas stations - Florida MUST go red! :)
Permalink Reply by Louis R Smith on Every black caller I hear on C-SPAN explains exactly why Obama is the better man. Get ready to change your vote!
"The media never tells the truth about the fact that as soon as Obama got in there, that Mitch McConnell sat right dare and say what's the most important thing is to make him a 1 term President. You never hear nuttin bout dat right dare. Tell da whole truth not just da part Grover Norquist tell ya to say cause you can't serve 2 masters and the oath to uh the country first and say......ain't nuttin butt da truth! so help me God."
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