So much of what we talk about with politics is not good news. There is some good news to be had and it explains why we have had a lot of bad news lately.
What is the good news?
The good news is the chances of Barack Obama winning reelection are not good.
Almost every day we hear about new polls telling us who is winning the popular vote. The popular vote does not matter. Only the Electoral College vote matters.
In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain, winning 28 states (plus DC) against McCain’s 22 states. He took 365 electoral votes and McCain took 173.
One consistent fact is that every President in recent times who has been reelected to a second term has managed to win more states the second time around than he did the first time. Even George W. Bush did that in 2004.
For Barack Obama, the campaign is not focused on winning new states. It is focused on trying not to lose too many states. That is not a good sign.
When you look at the map right now, Obama can count on winning 16 states plus the District of Columbia. He does not have to spend a dime and he will have these states. This comes up to about 201 electoral votes.
Right now, Romney will win 23 states. He is starting off with one more than McCain had and is already at 191 electoral votes, which is more than McCain had.
That leaves 11 states that are the toss-ups.
All 11 toss up states went for Obama in 2008. That will not happen in 2012.
With that as the starting place, where do we go from here?
Let’s start with Nevada. In 2010, Harry Reid managed to get reelected with the help of massive voter fraud. The Great Obama Depression has devastated Las Vegas and Nevada has a huge Mormon population. Put that one in Romney’s column.
That takes Romney up to 197.
Colorado has been a disaster for the GOP. The once solidly red state has seen the Democrats pour a lot of money into it. Unfortunately in 2010, the Republican Party had a nasty split in the governor’s race. Those wounds have not yet healed and they will not be able to effectively deliver the state for Romney.
Colorado takes Obama to 210.
Iowa is a very socially conservative state. Though traditionally considered a blue state, in 2010 Iowa voters removed three Iowa Supreme Court justices who decided there was a right to gay marriage in the Iowa Constitution. Iowa has a Republican governor and Lieutenant Governor. One of its two senators is a Republican. 2 of the 5 Congressmen are Republicans. Their legislature is split with the Democrats controlling the state senate and the Republicans controlling the State House. This one will be close but Iowa will go red.
Iowa takes Romney to 203.
Wisconsin is another traditionally blue state that is going red. Governor Scott Walker is very popular and the Democrats have angered Wisconsin voters with their repeated attempts to recall him. Throw Paul Ryan into the mix and you have a lock.
Wisconsin takes Romney to 213.
Michigan could be close. Romney’s father was the governor of Michigan for a number of years and he has a lot of political ties to this traditionally blue state. Both the Governor and Lieutenant Governor are Republicans and Republicans now control both houses of the State legislature. Unfortunately for Romney, current polling show Obama not only up by 5 but also at 49%. Unless he drops dramatically, that is a bridge too far.
Michigan takes Obama to 226.
Ohio decided the race in 2004 and may do so again in 2012. John Kasich is a popular Republican governor. Republicans control a majority of the congressional delegation as well as both houses of the legislature. A recent Rasmussen report had Romney and Obama tied at 45%. That is unbelievably bad news for Obama.
Ohio goes for Romney and that take him to 231.
Pennsylvania is a traditionally blue state but it is considered a toss up. That is bad news for Obama who must expend resources to keep this state blue. Right now his polling looks strong enough to keep it blue but Pennsylvania could still be in play.
Right now give this one to Obama and push his total to 246.
That leaves four states, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
The Democrat leaning PPP polling has Obama at 51% in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is Romney’s home state, even though he claims Massachusetts. He launched his campaign in New Hampshire. It is really hard to believe New Hampshire will go blue this time, despite the polling.
Call New Hampshire for Romney. That takes him to 235.
Both Virginia and North Carolina have been solidly red states until the last election. Both states went for Obama. It is hard to believe either state will go for Obama this time. While some polls show Obama leading in North Carolina polls, the North Carolina Democratic Party is currently a disaster. Governor Beverly Perdue is so unpopular she is not running for reelection and the state party has been ripped apart by a sex scandal.
While Virginia does tend to be very blue near DC, the further you get away from DC, the more sanity returns. The most recent poll gives Romney a 3-point lead. George Allen, Virginia’s popular former governor is running for the senate and he will help. Both of these states will go red this time. That pushes Romney to 263.
That leaves Florida.
Haven’t we been here before?
The most recent polling has Romney up by one or two points. Rasmussen has Obama at 43% in Florida and that is the kiss of death for an incumbent. Obama has managed to offend almost every major demographic that he would need in Florida. Florida now has a Republican governor and Marco Rubio is a very popular senator. Republicans in the Florida Congressional Delegation outnumber Democrat 19-6. They control both houses of the state legislature.
Even with the massive voter fraud the Democrats will be pulling out this year, it is almost impossible to believe Florida will again go blue.
That would make the final score Romney 292 and Obama 246. And that would make Mitt Romney the 45th President of the United States.
For those of you looking for some good news, there it is.
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That is really, really good news!!!! I just cannot understand how people can vote for Obama. It totally blows my mind. He is the most crooked, lying, deceiving president out of the entire presidencies of the US. And he isn't even an American citizen. How these low-life liberals can let that slide is beyond me. We must have Romney for the presidency or we will not have an America as we know it.
Yes, that is good news, but the fact that we even have to worry about it shows the sad state of affairs the country is in.
We have the most destructive administration in history running the show and yet a large part of the voting public still drinking the Kool-Aid. Also, keep in mind, even if Romney does get elected, the progressives will do everything in their power to sabotage the new administration's corrective actions. Sorry, if I sound pessimistic but we still have huge battles ahead of us for a long time to come.
I like your take on the electoral votes, however I live in Nevada and I will be shocked if Romney takes Nevada. Hopefully the Mormons will be out in full force, but democrats outnumber republicans here and add to the mix latinos, blacks and the union and it will be really tough. Just my take. It also certainly sounds like Romney needs to take Nevada to win.
A bunch of flag waving will be going on!
Yeah, and the next day martial law is declared. So sorry, can't change leadership at this "most critical time in our nations history", or whatever lame justification is eventually proffered. With a compliant left-wing MSM, he might even be able to sell it. I honestly believe that this election isn't going to matter in the long run. Obama is going to remain our "Dear Leader".
BO would launch WWIII if he thought it would get him re-elected. Hopefully he has ticked off enough people, in govt and out of it, that he's on a shorter leash than he thinks.
John Boehner must initiate an investigation in the Judiciary Committee of Obama November 7th to put Obama against the wall! He will be totally occupied with defending himself for the next 2-1/2 months and will not survive the investigation.
Otherwise Obama and Holder are planning to challenge the election results in 5 to 13 states which will delay the final election results well past January 20th and Romney will not be able to take office. Remember the Bush/Gore challenge in Florida. That was carried out promptly and efficiently. Holder will file numerous challenges to delay things until chaos erupts and Obama declares he must take over.
Anything short of an anti-Obama canidate taking the nation by storm sounds like a disaster to me. What kind of future do we have if near half the country will support a Marxist for president? Forty years of indoctrination of children in secular humanism, socialism, earth worship and one-world government public schools has not been in vain. Three hours on Sunday and once in the middle of the week is not enough to protect children from the instruction they get in the government, five day a week, equivalent of church "Sunday School"
Thanks Judson. Only political junkies do that kind of math, so it's a public service to walk us through the electoral college strategy stuff.
And I can always use some hope. I'll be paying more attention to this!
Did somebody forget the unions et.al. are fight for the popular vote and trying to do away with electorial?
We must not allow that to happen. If it does, the major population centers will decide who occupies the White House from now on. Can anyone name a major metropolitan area that has a Conservative majority? I can't think of a single one. Those outside of the big cities may as well stay home on election day if we ever do away with the Electoral College because their votes will be a waste of time.
But Obama has two cards up his sleeve;
1) Massive voter fraud, which may not be enough to win, and
2) Martial law, which will put this country in great turmoil!
God, please blind these evil people from flipping that switch!