Another Tuesday, another debate.
Tonight is Tuesday, which means it is time for another debate for the Republican contenders. This is much more fun than Monday night football and like football, we can make some predictions.
What does tonight hold for some of these candidates?
First, for the lower tier candidates, they are desperately trying to get traction that at this point will not happen. For Jon Huntsman, no one cares what you have to say. Please fade away quickly. For Rick Santorum, you are a nice guy who is finishing last (unless you can figure a way to include Gary Johnson in the mix). Both Huntsman and Santorum are really history and are now just waiting for the exit point. Huntsman can drag his and our agony out longer due to family wealth.
Michele Bachmann has now fallen into the bottom tier. She has shut down her offices in Virginia, rebooted her New Hampshire strategy and is basically now betting the farm on Iowa. Debates become important because they not only allow the public to get a good look at the candidates, the perception from the debates influences fundraising. Bachmann’s campaign is running on financial fumes. She desperately needs a knock out performance tonight to get the money stream going again. Unfortunately, we probably won’t see it.
Ron Paul will be there, mostly for comedic value. He will come out with one or more of his crazy statement, will hold on to his dedicated following and really do little more.
For Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, the debate is less about them winning than it is about Rick Perry and Herman Cain losing. For Romney, all he needs to do is avoid a major gaffe. So far, his campaign has done a good job of that. His campaign could be called the journey to mediocrity. He really offers nothing but he doesn’t screw up.
Gingrich remains the smartest guy on the stage and the best debater. Perhaps he is the luckiest too. Gingrich’s campaign was the first to have an implosion. It happened back in May and he has had time to recover from it. He now polls well, usually in third or fourth place. He has not been the beneficiary of the volatile GOP electorate so far, which has jumped to Bachmann, then Perry, and now Cain. That same electorate has abandoned Bachmann and Perry. Whether they will stay with Cain or not remains to be seen. Gingrich just needs to turn in a solid performance tonight with a couple of memorable lines and he should pick up a few more points in support. For him, the slow steady approach could be the one that gets him to the nomination.
The two with the most to lose in the debate tonight are Cain and Perry. Cain is now in his first debate since rocketing to top tier status. Cain better be wearing body armor tonight because the other candidates are going to be smiling, shaking his hand and trying to shank him in the back. There will be a lot of scrutiny about his 9-9-9 plan, including the obligatory liberal complaints about raising taxes on the poor. The GOP electorate has been notoriously fickle this year, not sticking with a particular candidate, so the question is going to be, can Cain hold on to the support he has now received? His performance tonight will go a long way to answering that question.
Finally, there is Rick Perry. After a horrible debate a few weeks ago and further scrutiny about his immigration positions, his support collapsed. Debating is not Rick Perry’s strong point. Another incoherent answer to a question tonight could doom his campaign and send him back to Austin.
All of these debates have been important. Tonight’s debate may well spell the end of more than one campaign.
For a couple of those campaigns on the bubble, when they go, it will be no great loss.
Tags: 2012, cain, debate, gingrich, gop, huntsman, paul, perry, romney
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by American Infidel on -
Cain: the more people get to know him, the better they like him.
Perry: the more people get to know him, the less they like him.
My prediction: After tonight, it will be down to Cain and Romney, and in the end, it will be Cain. I'm happy with that!
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Permalink Reply by 0fj8k7tt4p6ax on -
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Permalink Reply by American Infidel on
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Thanks, Abraham. You'll love this. Herman Cain tells Sean Hannity regarding criticism of him from black Lefties: "I left the Democrat plantation a long time ago"!
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Permalink Reply by heidi pascal on
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KUDDOS!!!!!!!!!!!
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Permalink Reply by Scott Casteel on
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I wish Cain would run on the Flat Tax podium and stay away from sales taxes. Too much fed power there. Thats my only problem with Cain. Perry, Newt and Mitt are RINOs and should be avoided at all costs. What would be the least beneficial to our movement, Obama for 4 more, or a RINO for eight? Our movement could lose momenteum in a decade. But the devastation Barry would cause might be irreversable.
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Permalink Reply by gene1 on
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Mainly I agree, but I thinks its too soon to write off Santorum - he's been rising in some polls & I don't think he'll drop out any time soon because there's always the V.P. position to shoot for.
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Permalink Reply by Minuteman DiverDown on
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I hope Cain dose well. I like Newt too.
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Permalink Reply by Aubrey Sheats Jr. on
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I'm with you on Huntsman, Santorum, Bachmann, Paul, and the other guy. As far as Perry, I was never a fan of his. Bachmann was my first choice but she lost her wheels and doesn't seem to be able to recover. I went to Cain because he is a true conservative and will tell the truth. Perry is nowhere near the true tea party conservative that Cain is and Romney is a 'liberal ' conservative, who seems to want to be tea party but will never be. that leaves Cain standing alone and you will see more and more tea party conservatives jump on his wagon. He is our best hope here ( if he is nominated, he will split the black vote just enough to take obama.) and if we don't support him financially until he gets past some of these early primaries, I'm afraid we'll be stuck with the soft conservative, Romney. I hope it comes down to a two man race between Cain/Romney, if so Cain will get the nomination.
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Permalink Reply by Norma J. Sears on
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People in TN need to help out Lt. Cmdr. Walter Fitzpatrick in Monroe County. What they are doing is unconstitutional.
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Permalink Reply by Swarming Bees on
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Just as I refuse to buy into the "proagenda," on Fox, I also don't buy into it when Judson engages in it. Judson isn't qualified to pick who I will support and vote for. His idea of "tiers," of candidates is old fashoned media hype which is totally worthless to me. So for Judson's benefit as to who should bow out or is on the way out. I will remind him that in 2008 the GOP nominated Sarah Palin as it's VP and she picked McCain as her Presidential running mate, right? Of course all the Judsons back then told us that McCain didn't have a chance. Nice try Judson, but I will mark my own ballot in my Primary and you're not allowed in there with me. I can't wait for the Monday morning quarterbacking, when all of you so called "experts," are busy eating crow. As far as your assessment of the Bachmann campaign,Well, rumor-mongerring has become a fine art, hasn't it?
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Permalink Reply by 0fj8k7tt4p6ax on
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Bees,
Please try not to bite the hand that feeds you on the best Conservative Political website on the internet. If you must backbite, head on over to Move On. Org or Huff Post and chew away.
a. zion
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Permalink Reply by Swarming Bees on
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Stow it! This is the First Amendment!
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